New ranking 2014 – update of 147 countries’ climate debt
2014
The data in ClimatePositions are updated consecutively and since the data year 2010 the eleven ‘indicators’ have all been updated.
The new rankings of 147 countries are now available in the menu “Contributions” (with six categories).
All country data and diagrams are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)’. In the coming months selected countries will be analyzed in articles. The following illustrates the latest updates in two ways: 1) The change of climate debt as a percentage of the global climate debt of the twelve largest CO2 emitters, and 2) The key-figures of the United Kingdom.
Carbon dioxide emissions 2013 – China, the United States, India and Russia
2014
The diagram shows the global development of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement 2000-2013 (measured by pure carbon) and of the four largest emitters China, the United States, India and Russia. The 2013-emissions are preliminary with an enlarged uncertainty of ±5%. The national shares of the global emissions in 2013 are shown in percent to the right. The four countries accounted for 54% of the global emissions in 2013 (48% in 2000). The preliminary carbon dioxide emissions in 2013 of 216 countries is available ‘here’¹. Global emissions are on track of the worst out of four scenarios, likely heading for 3.2-5.4°C increase in temperature by 2100, since pre-industrial era (see the diagram below from ‘Global Carbon Project’, and ‘presentation (pdf)‘.
Forest Cover, Primary Forests and climate debt
2014
The national data of Forest Cover and Primary Forest are both included in the calculations of Climate Contributions (debt) in ClimatePositions. Primary Forest was included as an indicator in the worksheet in August 2014. The following describes selected findings on forests from FAO’s ‘The Global Forest Resources Assessments (FRA), 2010’ (main report, pdf, 378 pages). The Assessment is based on two primary sources of data: 1) ‘country reports’ and 2) remote sensing conducted by FAO and partners.
Update of GDP(ppp-$) 2013
2014
The Climate Contributions (climate debt) in ClimatePositions increases with growing GDP(ppp-$)¹. The 2013 updates and adjustments back in time have now been released (see the ‘World Bank’). For some countries, this means large growth of GDP(ppp-$) since 2000 and thus large increases in Climate Contributions. In other words, the previous data tended to be too modest with respect to the wealth of many countries, in particular Iraq, Jordan, Indonesia, Kazakhstan and Egypt, and the rich authoritarian oil regimes Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The updated Climate Contributions per capita worldwide are available ‘here’ and in the spreadsheet in the menu ‘Calculations‘. See the Climate Contributions as a percentage of the annual GDP(ppp-$) ‘here‘.
CO2 Emissions from flights
2014
Since the early 1990s the passenger-kilometers of flights worldwide has increased by 5-6% per year. The CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide) per passenger kilometer vary due to difference in flight distances¹, aircrafts and load factors (percent of occupied seats) – with average load factors First Class and Business Class are causing nine- and three-times higher emissions per passenger than Economy Class, as one study suggests². Furthermore the mixed exhaust from flights causes 2-4 times more global warming than only CO2 emitted from engines on the ground³. The accumulated climate-effect from flights might be as high as 7-9% of the total effect from anthropogenic greenhouse gases4. However, the following examines only the CO2 Emissions from flights and the implied national costs in Climate Contributions (climate debt). But first see these three seductive animations (from ‘nats‘) with 24-hours flights over ‘Europe 1:59‘, ‘Middle East 1:11‘ and ‘North Atlantic 1:52‘.
Climate performance of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
2014
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are all Contribution Free in ClimatePositions. With 23% of the world population, and 54% of the Contribution Free population, the three populous countries are natural candidates of climate change compensation. Bangladesh is considered one of the most vulnerable to climate change – where millions are expected to be displaced due to flooding. A Global Climate Fund could lead aid efforts, but this idea seems to be “stone dead” since the major of atmosphere-poisoning countries refuse to finance the damages they cause (see the country list in the menu “Contributions”). However, India has to be cautious of its own climate performance in the coming years.
2012 update of GDP in ClimatePositions
2014
The annual national GDP(ppp-$) (standard of living measured by purchasing power) has a direct impact on the Climate Contributions. Updating of GDP for 2011 and 2012 are now entered ClimatePositions (Excel) and for most countries, this means considerable increases in the Climate Contribution (climate debt). In connection with the GDP update, a minor simplification of the calculation method has been made (recent years are still weighted more than previous years in GDP+).
The diagram shows the updated (and revised) GDP(ppp-$) 2000-2012 for the five largest CO2 Emitters: China, United States, Russia, India and Japan.
COP19 negotiating positions: China, United States, India, Russia and Japan
2014
The world’s five largest CO2 emitters – China, United States, Russia, India and Japan – are responsible for 57% of global CO2 Emissions (2006-2010) and 58% of the Climate Contributions (climate debt) in ClimatePositions 2010 (see the front diagram). Add to the group the populous Contribution Free countries Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Philippines and Ethiopia and the total share would almost reflect the world average of Population (56%), CO2 Emissions (59%) and Climate Contributions (58%). Leaders of these ten countries sitting around an imaginary negotiating table should be able to create a global climate agreement with binding CO2 reductions and full financing – but it will not happen!
The following depicts the submissions, basic statistics and negotiating positions at COP19 in Warsaw of the five largest CO2 emitters. See the five countries’ Contributions over time ‘here‘, the Contributions as a percentage of GDP ‘here‘ and read about the COP19 country groups ‘here‘.
Climate Contributions as a percentage of GDP for the top ten CO2 Emitters
2013
The top ten CO2 Emitters were responsible for 67% of the global CO2 Emissions in 2006-2010. Adjusting the national Contributions (climate debt) for the size of the GDP(ppp-$) is essential. Allowing the wealthy United States get away with paying the same dollar price of a ton of CO2 (carbon dioxide) exceeded as China is of course absurd. The countries’ climate change performances are measured indirectly as the Contributions’ percentage of the national GDP(ppp-$).
Climate Change Performance Index 2013
2013
‘Climate Change Performance Index 2013’ is a ranking of 58 countries that was published recently by ‘Germanwatch’ and ‘Climate Action Network Europe’ – with the help of over 230 experts worldwide. 80% of the evaluation is based on indicators of emissions (30% for emissions levels and 30% for recent development of emissions), efficiency (5% level of efficiency and 5% recent development in efficiency) and renewable energy (8% recent development and 2% share of total primary energy supply). For the first time emissions from deforestation is included. The remaining 20% of the evaluation is based on national and international climate policy assessments by experts from the respective countries.
India keeps the balance between growth and CO2 emissions
2013
India is the 4th largest CO2 Emitter in the world (in 2006-2010) but Contribution Free due to a balanced increase in economic growth and CO2 Emissions per capita. The front diagram show India’s annual GDP(ppp-$) in comparison with China and the global average (the blue dots). Subject to modifications in the data source. Economic growths in these two countries are causing an increasing proportion of the global CO2 Emissions (28.3% in 2006-2010) and thus climate change.
Top 5 CO2 Emitters’ Climate Contributions (climate debt) over time
2013
The 5 largest CO2 Emitters in 2006-2010 were 1. China (23,2%), 2. United States (19,7%), 3. Russia (5,3%), 4. India (5,1%) and 5. Japan (4,0%). These 5 countries accounted for 57,3% of the global CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide). The diagram above shows the Contributions (climate debt) per capita in 2000, 2005 and 2010 (the black line is the global average). India was Contribution Free. Note the logarithmic scale. On the list of the worst performing countries (climate debt per capita) the ranking in 2010 was as follows: United States (no. 7), Japan (no. 18), Russia (no. 31), China (no. 57) and India (Contribution Free). See the full country list in the menu Contributions/Per Capita US$ Rank.
Full Democracies means large Climate Contributions (climate debt)
2013
The diagram shows 23 Full Democracy countries’ total share of the global: 1) Population (13%), 2) GDP(ppp-$) (51%), 3) CO2 Emissions (39%) and 4) Contributions (debt) (74%). Only 1/8 of the people on the planet live in other words in Full Democracies and they are accountable for 3/4 of the global Contributions (climate debt) in ClimatePositions 2010. Also the ecological footprint (excluding CO2 Emissions) of a majority of these 23 countries is very large, with an average of 2.7 EPI. Obviously democracies in general are still flawed when it comes to planet responsibility and climate change response. Costa Rica is the only Contribution Free country on the Full Democracy list (more about Costa Rica soon).