2017

The diagram below shows ‘Share of global Climate Debt‘ in 2010, 2015 and 2017 of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa (ranked 22nd, 23rd and 24th). Kazakhstan’s share increased dramatically in a short period of time due to growing Fossil CO2 Emissions.

The following exposes the key-data in the Climate Debt calculations: Fossil CO2 Emissions, GDP, Environmental Performance, Ecological Footprint without carbon, Forest Cover, Primary Forests, Nuclear Power, Population trends and climate change financing. For comparison, Poland, Mexico and Brazil (ranked 25th, 26th, and 27th in Share of global Climate Debt) are included in some diagrams.

The ‘Per capita Climate Debt‘ accumulated since 2000 of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa are $2,748, $377 and $770, respectively. The second diagram shows the trends between 2010 and 2017, with world average set at 100, for the three countries as well as of Poland, Mexico and Brazil. The per capita Climate Debt ranking by October 2017 is shown in brackets.

The next three diagrams show Fossil CO2 Emissions from fuels and industrial processes¹, in tons per capita in decades, of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa. The green bars show the Free Emission Level² – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt. The grey bars are World emissions average.

CO2 Emissions data 1990-2016 (EDGAR) has been updated October 2017.

The three diagrams below show the per capita Fossil CO2 Emissions from fuels and industrial processes¹, annually since 2000, of the three countries. The green bars show the Free Emission Level². Kazakhstan’s wild growing emissions seem to have peaked between 2008 and 2013, while South Africa’s emissions appears to have peaked in 2008.

The diagram below shows per capita GDP(ppp-$) of the six countries and the World average. The wealth of Kazakhstan is 1.9 times greater than the one of South Africa.

The next diagram shows the relative Environmental Performance of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa, with an average country set at 100. All three countries are now slightly above World average. [Added 25-1-2018: See the new ‘Environmental Performance Index 2018‘]

The average per capita Ecological Footprint without carbon, between 2000 and 2013, with an average World country set at 100, of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa are 85, 95 and 65 respectively. Release years are about four years after data years. South Africa’s Climate Debt would have been 1.9% higher with World average footprint. Note that footprint calculation methods have changed over time. The latest and historic details from the source are available here: ‘Mexico‘ and ‘South Africa‘ (data of Kazakhstan is missing at the site).

Forest Cover and the precious Primary Forests as percentage of total land area, in 1990 and 2015, are important indicators in ClimatePositions. Kazakhstan has only 1.2% Forest Cover, while South Africa’s forests are minor and stable. Mexico’s relatively large Forest Cover are almost stable, while the precious Primary Forests decreased from 20.1% to 16.8% (cleared forests are causing 17.7% of the Mexican Climate Debt).

The per capita Nuclear Power generation 2000-2016 is shown below (the per capita ranking is shown in brackets). The generation of South Africa, Mexico and China are well below World average. In the calculation of Climate Debt, Nuclear Power must be phased out similar to Fossil Fuels, calculated as if Nuclear Power was oil-generated.

The diagrams below show Population density 2016 and growth between 2000 and 2016. Population density in Kazakhstan is 8 times smaller than World average. The Populations of Kazakhstan, Mexico and South Africa are about 18, 128 and 56 million, respectively.

Finally, the table below shows four key values of Kazakhstan, Mexico, South Africa, Poland, Mexico and Brazil in the calculation of national Climate Debts in ClimatePositions. The price of CO2 per ton (column two) is for total Fossil CO2 Emission from fuels (without bunkers) and industrial processes. Climate change financing (column three) is from July 2017.

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¹Fossil CO2 Emissions include all anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel (combustion and production) and from industrial processes (cement, steel, liming, urea and ammonia production or consumption). The uncertainty in Fossil CO2 Emissions is below 5% for industrialized countries and below 15% for developing countries. CO2 Emissions from international shipping and aviation (bunkers) are not included.

²The Free Emission Level (green bars) is determined by national Fossil CO2 Emissions 1990-1999 (baseline), and 11 more ‘Indicators‘, of which 7 are national and 4 are global.

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Updated data and diagrams of all ‘Indicators‘ and all countries in ClimatePositions are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)‘.

Data on Fossil CO2 Emissions (excluding international shipping and aviation) and industrial processes (cement, steel, liming, etc.) are from EDGAR (European Commission) (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Information on national GDP(ppp-$) per capita: Worldbank (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Source on Environmental Performance: Yale and Columbia University (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Source on Ecological Footprint: Global Footprint Network (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Data on national Forest Cover and Primary Forests are from United Nations UN (Report: Global Forest Resources Assessments) (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Data on national Nuclear Power generation: World Nuclear Association (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

Data on national and global Populations is from Worldbank (links in the menu Calculations / Sources & Links).

PowerPoint collage with flags by Claus Andersen, 2017.