Climate Debt worldwide

Climate Change Performance: Vietnam vs. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Climate Change Performance: Vietnam vs. United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The difference in climate change performance of Vietnam and United Arab Emirates (UAE) is somewhat educational. Vietnam’s Climate Debt is $14 per capita, while the authoritarian oil state of UAEs is $10,884 (see the latest ‘Ranking‘). The two countries are the world’s 27th and 28th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement – combined, they emitted 0.52 % of the global CO2 in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, Population, GDP(ppp-$) and Forest Cover (including Primary Forest).

First, the diagram below shows the national shares of the global Climate Debt, in 2017 and 2012. Both countries increased their shares in recent years, although at completely different levels and in unalike ways.

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Claus Andersen
by in / CO2 Emissions
World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels increased by 0.38% in 2016 compared to 2015

World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels increased by 0.38% in 2016 compared to 2015

According to ‘BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017‘ (pdf, page 47), World CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels increased by 0.38% in 2016, compared to 2015. The diagram below shows world emissions 2005-2016.

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World CO2 Emissions 2000-2059: with 50% risk of 2C global warming (two per capita emission-scenarios for the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria)

World CO2 Emissions 2000-2059: with 50% risk of 2C global warming (two per capita emission-scenarios for the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria)

In continuation of the previous article ‘Carbon Brief: Global Carbon Budget and CO2 Emission scenarios (50% risk of 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C warming)‘, the following examines the per capita CO2 Emission budget 2000-2059, with a 50% risk of 2°C global warming (which of course is unacceptable). The outcome is then compared with Climate Debt Free CO2 Emission levels (in ClimatePositions) of the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria, during the same 60-year period. Also, the Paris Agreements reduction commitment of the United States is put into perspective.

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Carbon Brief: Global Carbon Budget and CO2 Emission scenarios (50% risk of 1.5C, 2.0C and 3.0C warming)

Carbon Brief: Global Carbon Budget and CO2 Emission scenarios (50% risk of 1.5C, 2.0C and 3.0C warming)

Based on IPCC’s recent synthesis report, published 2014, ‘Carbon Brief‘ has calculated the number of years we can continue with today’s emission level (and then stop emissions), and still keep global average temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C, 2°C or 3°C above pre-industrial levels – with a 33% risk, a 50% risk, and a 66% risk of failure. One out of nine figures suggest that five more years with the current level of CO2 Emissions (and then total stop) leaves us with a 33% risk of 1.5°C temperature rise.

To frame the overall situation, the first diagram (below) shows three key graphs 1960-2015, with 1960 set at 100: 1) Global CO2 Emissions¹ from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement, 2) Global Population (with projections to 2100), and 3) CO2 Emissions per capita. Even significant reductions of per capita emissions¹, will not necessary compensate for the projected population growth.

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Climate change performance: Egypt vs. Ukraine

Climate change performance: Egypt vs. Ukraine

Egypt and Ukraine are the world’s 25th and 26th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 1.2% of global CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Ecological Footprint and the Ukrainian Nuclear Power.

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and the required reduction line in ClimatePositions (emissions of three country groups by Climate Debt)

World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and the required reduction line in ClimatePositions (emissions of three country groups by Climate Debt)

If all 97 countries with Climate Debt (see the ‘Ranking‘), had cut national emissions as required in ClimatePositions, then World Carbon Emissions would have dropped significantly as demonstrated in the diagram below. World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels (without bunker¹) and cement amounted a total of 312 GtC (Gigaton Carbon) between 1960 and 2015 … however with the required cuts, emissions would have been 270 GtC, or 14% less … and no countries would have Climate Debt.

Recent analysis² suggest a small 0.2% growth of emission in 2016 compared to 2015 – and that four more years of current emissions “would be enough to blow what’s left of the carbon budget for a good chance of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5C.” Not so smart!

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Climate change performance: Malaysia vs. Spain

Climate change performance: Malaysia vs. Spain

Malaysia and Spain are the world’s 23rd and 24th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 1.4% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Forest Cover (and Primary Forest) and Environmental Performance.

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt. The Spanish reductions are pretty much balanced by the Malaysian increases … which is world symptomatic.

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Climate change performance: Kazakhstan vs. Poland

Climate change performance: Kazakhstan vs. Poland

In 2015 Kazakhstan and Poland were the world’s 2nd and 4th largest per capita coal producers. No wonder, the two countries, inhabited by 0.76% of the global population, emitted as much as 1.58% of the CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunkers) and cement.

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (without bunkers) and cement, annually since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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Climate change performance: Thailand vs. France

Climate change performance: Thailand vs. France

Thailand and France are the world’s 19th and 20th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 1.8% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Ecological Footprint, Forest Cover and Nuclear Power.

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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Climate change performance: Turkey vs. Italy

Climate change performance: Turkey vs. Italy

Turkey and Italy are the world’s 17th and 18th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 2.0% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$) and Forest Cover (including Primary Forest).

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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My own climate change boycott country-list

My own climate change boycott country-list

Without been fanatical about it, I seek to boycott the greediest and most climate-destructive countries on the planet. For the fairness, I have divided the fifteen nominees into two leagues:

A) Countries with per capita Climate Debts more than 10 times world average: Qatar, Kuwait, Brunei, Luxembourg, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Oman.

B) Countries with per capita Climate Debts between 5 and 10 times world average: Saudi Arabia, United States, Bahrain, Australia, Norway, Equatorial Guinea, Canada and South Korea.

Feel free to copy…

Among the fifteen countries only Luxembourg and South Korea are not among the world’s twenty largest per capita Fossil Fuel producers (read the article: ‘How green are the fossil fuel producers? (Correlation between fossil fuel production, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Climate Debt)‘.

The table below shows some key data of the fifteen countries. The table is read like this: 1) Between 1990 and 1999 Qatar emitted  55.1 tons of CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement, annually per capita, 2) Between 2000 and 2015 Qatar emitted 51.7 tons (the average Climate Debt Free Level¹ was 32.4 tons), and 3) Qatars GDP(ppp) per capita was $143,788 in 2015.

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Climate change performance: The United Kingdom vs. Australia

Climate change performance: The United Kingdom vs. Australia

The United Kingdom and Australia and are the world’s 15th and 16th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 2.2% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators’ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$) and Ecological Footprint (without carbon footprint).

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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Climate change performance: Canada vs. South Africa

Climate change performance: Canada vs. South Africa

Canada and South Africa are the world’s 13th and 14th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 2.6% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Ecological Footprint and Nuclear Power.

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt. Canada’s emissions from coal decreased by 41.3% between 2000 and 2014 (coal caused 13% of the CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels in 2014). South Africa’s emissions from coal increased by 6.4% between 2010 and 2014 (coal caused 83% of the CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels in 2014).

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Indicator update: Climate change financing as share of Climate Debt, by country (Climate Funds Update)

Indicator update: Climate change financing as share of Climate Debt, by country (Climate Funds Update)

Climate Funds Update‘ is providing information on finance for developing countries to address climate change. Around $26 billion has currently been funded (money deposited; data from October 2016), of which 96% is country-sourced. If all sources of income are included¹, then the funds amount to $30 billion, of which 81% is country-sourced. The country-sourced climate finance has increased by 25% since June 2016 (in eight months). The previous seven month the increase was 24%.

The table below shows: 1) the current Climate Debt per capita in ClimatePositions, 2) the per capita climate change financing (funding) to developing countries and 3) the climate financing as share of the Climate Debt. The table includes 35 countries with both climate change financing and Climate Debt in ClimatePositions. Note that only countries with full data in ClimatePositions are included.

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Climate change performance: Brazil vs. Mexico

Climate change performance: Brazil vs. Mexico

Brazil and Mexico are the world’s 11th and 12th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 2.8% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Forest Cover, Primary Forest and Ecological Footprint (without carbon footprint).

The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.

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Climate change performance: South Korea vs. Indonesia (peatlands in Southeast Asia)

Climate change performance: South Korea vs. Indonesia (peatlands in Southeast Asia)

In 2015 South Korea and Indonesia accounted for 3.60% and 0.51% of the global Climate Debt, respectively (see the ‘Ranking‘). The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$), Forest Cover (and peatlands), Primary Forest and Marine Protection.

The first two diagrams show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, annually since 2000, of South Korea and Indonesia. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt. The world’s 9th and 10th largest CO2-emitters were responsible for 1.7% (South Korea) and 1.5% (Indonesia) of global emissions in 2015, respectively. South Korea’s per capita emissions were 11.7 tons in 2015 (preliminary), while Indonesia’s were 2.1 tons (preliminary), which was 2.2% above the 2014-level.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

194 countries have agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, neither “global average temperature” nor “pre-industrial levels” are defined in the agreement. Furthermore, different scientific groups produce different temperature datasets, which are not exactly the same because of differences in the methodologies (and to complete the absurdity, the Paris Agreement contains no binding national emission pathways to the overall goal). The following temperature survey refers to datasets from ‘National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)‘.

The diagram below shows the global surface (air) temperature 1880-2016 over 1) Land, 2) Ocean and 3) Land/Ocean combined (which is most commonly used). All three baselines are 1880-1937 (set at 0°C) and the dashed lines show the average trends. Apparently, global (air) warming happens considerably faster on land than on oceans. By the way, the global warming in 2016, baseline 1880-1937, was 1.73°C (Land), 0.94°C (Ocean) and 1.15°C (Land/Ocean).

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

The year 2016 was by far the hottest on planet Earth since measurements began in 1880. Both global Land (air) Temperature and Ocean (air) Temperature were the hottest on record. See the development in Land Temperature between 1960 and 2016 in the diagram below. The average temperature rise 1880-1937 is set at 0°C (baseline 1880-1937) and 2016 was 1.73°C warmer. The development since 1880 in Land Temperature and Ocean Temperature (and the two combined) are available at ‘ncdc.noaa.gov‘.

Added 22-01-17: The Ocean Temperature 2016 was 0.94°C warmer compared to baseline 1880-1937, and Land and Ocean Temperature combined was 1.15°C warmer. Note that other sources may refer to baseline 1881-1910 or even 1951-1980.

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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Global Indicator Updates 2016: Sea Level, Population and CO2 Content in the atmosphere

Global Indicator Updates 2016: Sea Level, Population and CO2 Content in the atmosphere

The estimated annual global Sea Level rise since 1993 increased from 3.3 mm (±0.4 mm) in 2015 to 3.4 mm (±0.4 mm) in 2016. The increase suggests an accelerating rate of Sea Level rise, which is illustrated in the diagram below. The growing volume of the oceans is caused by two effects of global warming: melting ice and warmer oceans. In ClimatePositions the Sea Level rise between 1880 and 1993 is set at 1.2 mm annually, or 14 cm during the 113-year period. The total estimated Sea Level rise between 1880 and 2016 adds up to 21.82 cm and this figure is used as an ‘Indicator‘ in ClimatePositions.

The Sea Level rise between 2004 and 2016 is shown below (Sea Level 1880 and 1993 is set at 0 cm and 14 cm, respectively) – the unscientific polynomial trend line projects the scary tendency by 2100.

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Climate change performance: Iran vs. Saudi Arabia (gas and oil)

Climate change performance: Iran vs. Saudi Arabia (gas and oil)

The large oil and gas producers Iran and Saudi Arabia are the world´s 7th and 8th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels. The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (without bunkers) and cement, annually since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt. Iran and Saudi Arabia were responsible for 1.9% and 1.7% of global emissions in 2015.

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