How green are the fossil fuel producers? (Correlation between fossil fuel production, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Climate Debt)
2015
Greenhouse gas emissions from burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), is the main cause of manmade climate change. Comparable energy potentials of oil, natural gas and coal is defined as “tons oil equivalents”, meaning that the energy released from a given quantity of natural gas or coal is equivalent to one ton of oil. This way the total production of fossil fuels can be expressed in a single figure (not to be confused with market value, global warming potential or general usefulness) The world’s production in million tons oil equivalent, was in 2013: oil (4,130), natural gas (3,041 and coal (3,881).
The table below ranks the twenty countries with the largest per capita fossil fuel production (oil equivalents). Total production data of 68 countries is from ‘BPs Statistical Review of World Energy 2014’ (pdf, 48 pages).
Mongolia and other coal producing countries (the thirteen most coal-dependent countries)
2015
Mongolia is the world’s second largest coal producer per capita (Btu, 2011) and coal is the world’s no. 1 carbon dioxide emitter. However, the flawed democracy (surrounded by the giant authoritarian regimes of China and Russia) is Contribution Free (no Climate Debt) in ClimatePositions – how is this possible?
The table below ranks the thirteen largest per capita coal producers (Btu, 2011), with the world average set at 1.0. The Mongolian coal production is almost ten times larger than the world average. For comparison, the table shows per capita values of CO2 Emissions (from fossil fuels), GDP(ppp-$) and Climate Debt. More comments below the table.
European Union “east” compared to bordering countries
2015
The ‘European Union’ (EU) is an economic and political partnership between ‘28 countries’. Around 7% of the global population lives in EU and they emit around 12% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels and are responsible of 13% of the Climate Debt in ClimatePositions. The following examines a group of 10 countries in eastern EU which joined the union between 1981 and 2007 in comparison with 8 bordering countries.
Climate change performance: Turkey vs. Egypt
2015
Turkey is ranked 57th and Egypt 71st among 147 countries on the list of the worst performing countries in ClimatePositions. See the ‘ranking’. The Turkish Climate Debt accumulated since 2000 increased from $161 per capita in 2010 to $324 in the latest calculation, while the one of Egypt increased from $40 to $73. The first diagram shows the relative Climate Debt of the two countries in comparison with Lebanon, Jordan and China, with the world average set at 100. Note that the world’s average Climate Debt increased from $455 per capita in 2010 to $769 in 2014 (reflecting the growing CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and the growing economy). The following examines some indicators and trends of Turkey and Egypt.
Climate change performance of Norway (and the giant oil fund)
2015
Norway’s first oil field started production in 1971 and since 1996 petroleum revenue has been transferred to what’s now called the ‘Government Pension Fund Global’ – often referred to as Norway’s Oil Fund. Today, the fund’s market value is around $884 Billion. For comparison, the updated Norwegian Climate Contribution in ClimatePositions is $16.4 Billion and the climate financing¹ $1.5 Billion. Below are listed some perspectival per capita figures:
- The current market value of Norway’s Oil Fund is around $188,000 per capita (per Norwegian). In 2000 the market value was $11,000 per capita.
- The accumulated Climate Contribution in ClimatePositions is $3,490 per capita.
- The climate financing is $321 per capita (9% of the Climate Contribution which is world record; read this ‘article‘).
- The updated Climate Debt is $3,169 per capita which ranks Norway 15th in the world (see the ‘ranking’).
- The oil production per capita was 6th in the world in 2013, after Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Equatorial Guinea – in 2000 Norway was 2nd. Norway’s oil production decreased by 46% between 2000 and 2013 … the world production increased by 17% during the same period.
- The natural gas production per capita was 4th in the world in 2012, after Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago and Brunei. Norway’s natural gas production increased by 106% between 2000 and 2012 … the world production increased by 37% during the same period.
The following examines Norway’s CO2 Emissions, Climate Debt over time, GDP(ppp-$) and the investment strategy of Norway’s Oil Fund.
Slowdown of Denmark’s accumulating Climate Debt, but..!
2015
Denmark’s updated Climate Debt is $806 per capita. In the latest ‘ranking’ the Scandinavian country is 41st out of 147 countries (where no. 1 is worst) and is often referred to as a green transition pioneer. However, according to various rankings and surveys the picture is somewhat more complicated:
- Denmark’s per capita ‘Ecological Footprint’ – without carbon emissions – is the largest among 152 countries.
- Denmark is ranked 1st among 29 countries (those with data) on organic (ecological) share of all domestic sales¹.
- In the ‘Climate Change Performance Index’ (from Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe) Denmark performs best of 58 countries.
- CO2 Emissions would be around 46% higher than the usual statistics show, if emissions from Danish-controlled overseas ships, sailing goods around the world, were included² (in 2011 the Danish per capita CO2 Emissions would be around 15.0 tons instead of 8.2 tons).
- In addition, Denmark’s CO2 Emissions would be around 18% higher (in 1996-2009), than the usual statistics show, if emissions were consumption-based³ (inclusive CO2 Emissions from the production of imported goods) instead of production-based (inclusive CO2 Emissions from domestic production of goods for export).
However, the following examines only the indicators of CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels (production-based and without emissions from overseas ships), GDP(ppp-$) and Ecological Footprint without carbon emissions.
Top five in Climate Debt: Qatar, Kuwait, Singapore, United Arab Emirates and Trinidad and Tobago
2015
The updated Climate Debt per capita accumulated since 2000 of the five worst performing countries are:
- Qatar $35,565
- Kuwait $31,828
- Singapore $24,828
- United Arab Emirates $18,386
- Trinidad and Tobago $14,131
See the ‘ranking’ of 147 countries. The total population of the five small countries is 0.24% of the global population but the total Climate Debt is overwhelmingly 7.44% of the global Climate Debt (in 2012). The following analyses the indicators of GDP(ppp-$) and CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels (read about the issues of marine bunkers e.g. in Singapore at the bottom).
Climate change performance of Spain, France and Italy
2015
2.5% of the global population live in Spain, France or Italy and together they emitted 3.3% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 – the combined share of the global Climate Debt is 4.3%. Spain’s updated Climate Debt per capita is $1,692 (ranked 25th), France’s is $1,352 (ranked 31st) and Italy’s is $1,034 (ranked 35th). See the ‘ranking’. The following examines the Climate Debt trends and the indicators of CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide from fossil fuels), GDP(ppp-$), Forests, Marine Protection and Nuclear Power.
Climate change performance: Australia vs. New Zealand
2015
The two diagrams below show Australia’s and New Zealand’s CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels per capita in decades. The green bars show the Contribution Free Level and the grey bars are the world average. The average Australian per capita emissions were 16.7 tons in 1990s and 19.7 tons in 2000-2012 (18% increase). The corresponding figures of New Zealand were 8.7 tons and 9.5 tons (10% increase).
Climate change performance of Venezuela, Chile and Mexico
2015
Venezuela, Chile and Mexico are ranked 42nd, 44th and 58th among 147 countries on the worst performing list in ClimatePositions (see the ‘ranking’). Their updated Climate Contributions (climate debt) are respectively $697, $561 and $313 per capita. The first diagram shows the GDP(ppp-$) per capita of the three countries, in comparison with Panama, Honduras and the world average. Chile is the third wealthiest country in the America’s after (far after!) the United States and Canada – Honduras is the second poorest after Nicaragua.
Climate change performance of Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines
2015
6.4% of the world population lives in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia or the Philippines – they emitted 3.2% of the global carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in 2012. The four diagrams below show the emissions per capita 2000-2013 (preliminary estimates of 2013) of the four populous countries of which only the Philippines is Contribution Free (no climate debt) in ClimatePositions. The green bars are the Contribution Free Level of CO2 Emissions calculated from emissions in 1990s and a number of continuously updated ‘indicators’.
Climate change performance of South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Namibia
2015
36 out of 44 African countries in ClimatePositions are Contribution Free and the total climate debt of the African continent is 1.1% of the global climate debt – the share of the global population and CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels is respectively around 13.8% and 3.7%. The eight countries ranked below stand out in Africa by having a climate debt. This article analyses the performance of South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Namibia.
Brazil’s rainforests and climate change performance
2014
The Google map of the Amazon is from the new interactive ‘Global Forest Change‘ developed by The University of Maryland (read ‘more’). The red is Forest Loss from 2000 to 2012, the blue is Forest Gain and the green is Forest Extent (unchanged). The purple is areas of mixed Forest Loss and Forest Gain. According to Brazil’s environment minister the lowest recorded deforestation of Brazil since 1988, was in 2012. Furthermore, up to a third of the cleared rainforest over the past decades may be on the way back (regrowth).
Climate change performance of Saudi Arabia and Canada
2014
The first diagram shows the relative Climate Contribution (debt) per capita of Saudi Arabia, Canada, China, the United States and Russia, with the world’s average set at 100. Around 2007 Saudi Arabia passed Canada and since then, the gap has grown considerably. Today, the climate debt per capita accumulated since 2000 are respectively $7,936 and $5,128 (see the ‘ranking’).
The Climate Contributions are calculated by using eleven ‘indicators’ of which national CO2 Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is the principal. Extraction and export of fossil fuels is not one of the indicators which Saudi Arabia should be thankful for – wealth measured as ‘GDP(ppp-$)‘, however, is an indicator.
The United Kingdom beats Germany in climate change performance
2014
Germany is ranked 24th and United Kingdom 33rd among 147 countries on the list of the worst performing countries in ClimatePositions. See the ‘ranking’. The German Climate Contribution (debt) accumulated since 2000 has increased from $980 per capita in 2010 to $1,640 in the latest calculation, while the one of the United Kingdom has increased from $796 to $1,156. The first diagram shows the relative climate debt of the two countries in comparison with France, Italy and Poland, with the world average set at 100. Since 2010, the United Kingdom is the only country among the five that has improved significantly. The world average climate debt has increased from $455 per capita in 2010 to $769 in the latest calculation (this increase reflects both the growing CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and the growing economy). The following analyses some trends for Germany and the United Kingdom.
Climate change performance: Japan vs. South Korea
2014
The first diagram shows the nuclear power generation per capita of the two countries. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 has caused a remarkable shutdown of generation – while CO2 Emissions from the burning of petroleum, coal and natural gas have increased (from 2011 to 2012 respectively by 6%, 5% and 3%) to close the energy gap. Nuclear power generation produce dangerous radioactive waste to deal with for thousands of future generations (10,000 to 250,000 years) and in ClimatePositions nuclear power is not accepted as a national CO2 Emission reduction instrument (read ‘more’). The following analyzes the indicator trends of Japan and South Korea.
Climate change performance of Russia (compared to other BRICS countries)
2014
Russia was the 4th largest carbon dioxide emitter in 2012 with 5.6% of the global emissions, after China (26.9%), the United States (16.6%) and India (5.8%). The first diagram shows Russia’s CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average (the green bars are the Contribution Free Level). After the COP summit in 2009 (at which China and the United States rejected a globally binding reduction agreement) the Russian emissions have increased dramatically and today the Russian Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $1,410 per capita (ranked 28th), compared to $627 in 2010 (ranked 32nd). See the ‘ranking’. The following analyzes the development in Putin’s Russia since 2000 in comparison with the other ‘BRICS‘ countries China, India, Brazil and South Africa – jointly emitting 41% of global carbon dioxide in 2012.
Climate change performance of the United States 2000-2013 (and the new emission target)
2014
Last week the United States ‘agreed’ with China to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions between 26% and 28% from the 2005-level by 2025. The agreement is legally non-binding and without the support of the Republicans. The following analyze the new US emission target (in the bottom) and the general performance in comparison with the spying buddies in Five Eyes Alliance¹: Canada, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom.
The United States is presently ranked 10th out of 147 countries in Climate Contribution (climate debt) per capita. See the ‘ranking’. The US ‘share of the global Climate Contributions’ is now 37.0%, compared to 40.7% in 2010. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average. The green bars are the Contribution Free Level, determined by the level of CO2 Emissions in the 1990s and the eleven ‘indicators’. The declining US share of the global climate debt is mainly due to reduced CO2 Emissions while the global emissions have increased.
China’s growing climate debt and carbon dioxide emissions is catastrophic
2014
Today, China ‘agreed‘ with the United States (without the Republicans!?) that the Chinese CO2 Emissions can increase by 2030, after which emissions shall decrease. The agreement is legally non-binding and can almost be seen as a confirmation of the ‘worst case climate scenario‘. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions of China (the black bars) in decades in comparison with the world average (the grey bars). The green bars show the Chinese Contribution Free Levels in ClimatePositions. Today the Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $402 per capita and the ranking is 52nd out of 147 countries (see the ‘ranking’). The updated Chinese Climate Contribution is 10.3% of the global contribution, second only to the United States (see the ‘ranking’).
New ranking 2014 – update of 147 countries’ climate debt
2014
The data in ClimatePositions are updated consecutively and since the data year 2010 the eleven ‘indicators’ have all been updated.
The new rankings of 147 countries are now available in the menu “Contributions” (with six categories).
All country data and diagrams are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)’. In the coming months selected countries will be analyzed in articles. The following illustrates the latest updates in two ways: 1) The change of climate debt as a percentage of the global climate debt of the twelve largest CO2 emitters, and 2) The key-figures of the United Kingdom.