Update 2015: Sea Level rise slowly accelerates
During 2015 the average estimated rate of global Sea Level rise since 1993 increased from 3.2 mm (±0.4 mm) annually to 3.3 mm (±0.4 mm). This indicates a slowly continually accelerating rate of Sea Level rise. In ClimatePositions the Sea Level rise between 1880 and 1993 is set at 1.2 mm annually, or 14.00 cm in total, and combined this adds up to a total estimated Sea Level rise between 1880 and 2015 of 21.26 cm (this figure is used in ClimatePositions).
The COP21 Paris Agreement: Diplomatic triumph, self-applause … and the carbon budget
2015
The COP21 ‘Paris Agreement’ (31 p), backed by 196 countries, emphasizes the urgent need to address the greenhouse gas emission gap between the aggregate effect of the 187 intended nationally defined contributions (INDCs/pledges) and the “aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. This feverish understatement about the emission gab is clarified in the ‘Synthesis report (UN)’ on the aggregate effect of the pledges. The report says that the aggregate effect of the submitted pledges (INDCs) will bring the global cumulative CO2 Emissions up to around 72%–77% of the remaining carbon budget by 2030 (emitting 100% will leave the planet with 66% change of a temperature rise of less than 2°C). In other words: If the pledges are fulfilled perfectly, then three quarters of the remaining carbon budget will be used within 15 years … and thereafter emissions will have to dive deeply to zero before 2040. The critical situation is envisioned graphically below.
Preliminary Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2014, by country
2015
’The Global Carbon Project’ at Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) has published preliminary CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and cement for 2014, for more than 200 countries. The data is being used in a preliminary calculation of accumulated Climate Debt in ClimatePositions¹. The table below shows the estimated per capita emissions plus the updated Climate Debts, of the twenty largest total emitters (responsible for 77% of the global emissions in 2014).
2014-updates of GDP(ppp-$) … rising along with the temperature
2015
The national Climate Debt in ClimatePositions increases with growing GDP(ppp-$)¹. 2014-updates of GDP from ‘World Bank’ are now available in ‘Calculation (Excel)’. The world’s average per capita GDP(ppp-$) grew from $14,417 in 2013 to $14,939 in 2014. The diagram below shows the development in GDP(ppp-$) in 2000-2014 of the world average and five of the world’s largest per capita fossil fuel CO2 Emitters (in 2012): Qatar (50.8 tons of CO2), United Arab Emirates (44.0 tons), Singapore (38.8 tons), Bahrain (25.8 tons) and Saudi Arabia (22.0 tons).
Analyses of the global CO2 target and GDP(ppp-$)
2015
The calculation of Climate Debt in ClimatePositions is based on a balance between many ‘indicators’ and a common global per capita CO2 target. To illustrate the nature of this balance twelve countries are analyzed in this article in terms of the indicator of GDP(ppp-$) and the global CO2 target. The 12-Countries Group represents 38% of the global population, 65% of the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and around 70% of the global Climate Debt.
Update: Climate funding as share of Climate Debt, by country
2015
‘Climate Funds Update’ is an independent website providing information on climate finance designed for developing countries to address climate change. The data is based on information received from 25 multilateral, bilateral, regional and national climate funds and the funding is largely up to date by the end of June 2015. A total of $17 billion has currently been funded (money deposited), of which 96% is country-sourced¹. The updated table below shows the level of national climate financing to developing countries, as percentage of the accumulated Climate Debt. The values are based on the latest available updates.
New at COP21: The Vulnerable Twenty Group (V20)
2015
Prior to COP21 in Paris in December twenty countries most at risk from the effects of global warming has formed ‘The Vulnerable Twenty Group (V20)’. Unified, the new group hopes for greater access to climate finance for adaptation and mitigation. The twenty countries representing almost one-tenth of the world’s population are: Bangladesh, Philippines, Ethiopia, Vietnam, Tanzania, Kenya, Afghanistan, Nepal, Ghana, Madagascar, Rwanda, Costa Rica, Bhutan, Timor-Leste, Maldives, Barbados, Vanuatu, Saint Lucia, Kiribati and Tuvalu. The first thirteen on the list have full data in ClimatePositions and they are all Contribution Free (no Climate Debt) among 147 countries (see the ‘ranking’). The last seven are examined below in terms of climate change performance.
Forest Cover updates 2015 (and the number of trees on the planet)
2015
The United Nations site for the ‘Millennium Development Goals Indicators’ (MDG Indicators) has published the estimated Forest Cover as percentage of land area of 225 countries. The table at the bottom includes only 83 selected countries with Climate Debt in ClimatePositions (the fraction of the Climate Debt caused by Forest Cover-change is revealed). However, Forest Cover alone is a poor ecosystem-indicator and therefore the area with the precious Primary Forests is also included in ClimatePositions (read the article ‘Forest Cover, Primary Forests and Climate Debt’).
Per capita fossil fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions: China vs. United States
2015
In different ways, China and the United States are main responsible for the continuing Climate Destruction. Combined the two superpowers, holding 24% of the world population, emitted 43% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 and they accounted for 47% of the global Climate Debt¹. Had the two countries consistently promoted a fair and globally binding climate agreement, not thwarted it, then COP21 in Paris in December would not be such an incomprehensible mission impossible². The diagram below shows the per capita fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, between 1980 and 2013, of China, the United States and Rest World. The stippled lines indicate the Contribution Free Level of CO2 Emissions in ClimatePositions. More comments below the diagram.
Sea level rises 58 m if all fossil fuels are extracted and burned
2015
A new ’simulation-study from Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research’ shows that the Antarctic ice sheet would melt, causing the world’s sea level to rise about 58 m, if all the world’s resources of coal, oil and gas are extracted and burned. The following highlight some of the assumptions and outcomes of the study and besides visualize 30 m and 60 m sea level rise in fourteen of the world’s twenty largest cities (Tokyo, New York City, Seoul, Mumbai, Karachi, Osaka, Shanghai, Beijing, Calcutta, Cairo, London, Dhaka, Paris and Rio de Janeiro).
Climate change performance of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas
2015
Jamaica’s updated Climate Debt per capita is $181 and the one of the Dominican Republic is $67. Cuba and Haiti are both Contribution Free (no Climate Debt). See the ‘ranking’ of 147 countries by November 2014. The Bahamas are not included due to lack of data on Ecological Footprint – however, if this indicator it is set at world’s average, then the per capita Climate Debt of the Bahamas would be $2,982 (ranked 17). The following examines CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, GDP(ppp-$), Environmental Performance and Forest Cover.
Climate change performance of Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Belarus and Ukraine
2015
1.5% of the global population lives in Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Belarus or Ukraine and together they emitted 2.3% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 – the joint share of the global Climate Debt was 0.7%.
Slovakia’s accumulated Climate Debt per capita is now $640 (in 2014 the ranking was 43rd among 147 countries), Poland’s is $519 (ranked 47th), Hungary’s is $406 (ranked 54th), Belarus’ is $274 (ranked 59th) and Ukraine’s is $168 (ranked 63rd). See the ‘ranking’. The following examines the Climate Debt trends and the indicators of CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, GDP(ppp-$) and Climate Debt as a percentage of GDP.
Sweden beats Finland in climate change performance
2015
Finland’s updated Climate Debt is $2,624 per capita and Sweden’s is $1,003. The ‘2014-rankings’ were 18th and 37th among 147 countries. The following examines the indicators of CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, Nuclear Power, GDP(ppp-$), Climate Debt as a percentage of GDP(ppp-$) and Forest Cover.
Fossil fuel subsidies: $5.3 trillion in 2015 (IMF survey)
2015
Estimates from the ‘International Monetary Fund’ (IMF) show that fossil fuel subsidies of 155 countries representing 98% of the world’s population, amounted $4.2 trillion (5.8% of global GDP) in 2011 and $4.9 trillion (6.5% of global GDP) in 2013. Projections for 2015 suggest $5.3 trillion (6.5% of global GDP). This huge amount of subsidies is of cause plain stupid.
For comparison, the total ‘Climate Debt of 147 countries‘ in ClimatePositions, accumulated between 2000 and 2013, amounted $5.2 trillion. Roughly speaking, one year of global subsidies equals the total accumulated Climate Debt. Note that global climate change funding is only around $0.14 trillion.
Giving up on future generations is real (about COP Submissions 2015)
2015
COP Submissions with intended national emission targets of 44 countries¹, responsible for 70% of the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, are now available for study. Among the seven largest emitters only India’s submission is still missing. China, the world’s largest emitter, intends to reach its maximum emissions by 2030 (maybe earlier) and then reduce … which leaves global scenarios open to assumptions. The calculations in this article are based on 10% and 30% increase of the Chinese emissions by 2030, compared to 2013.
Climate change performance of Israel, Lebanon and Jordan (refugees from the Syrian Civile War)
2015
The ‘Syrian Civil War’ and other violent conflicts in the region are causing huge numbers of refugees. According to ‘The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR)’ around 1.2 million refugees lived in Lebanon by December 2014, which was 28% of the usual population. In Jordan, the percentage of refugees was 10% and in Israel 0.5%. For comparison, the world average is about 0.8% (60 million refugees globally). Under these tragic circumstances carbon dioxide emissions and Climate Debt is of cause inconsiderate to discuss, but on the other hand, manmade climate destruction also causes mass refugees, mutilation and death … with increasing force in the coming decades. Experts foresee about 200 million climate refugees by 2050, or about 2% of the projected global population of 10 billion. Or roughly speaking: Two-thirds more refugees, due to climate change alone, in a world with one-third more people – in 35 years.
Climate Destruction League: Bahrain vs. Oman
2015
The small authoritarian Islamic oil regimes of Bahrain and Oman are ranked 6th and 8th among 147 countries on the worst performing list (see the ‘ranking’). 0.06% of the global population lives in Bahrain or Oman and together they emitted 0.30% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 – their joint share of the global Climate Debt is around 0.66%. Bahrain’s per capita Climate Debt is now $8,668 and Oman’s is $8,077. Renewable energy and global climate change financing are largely non-existent in both countries. Welcome to Climate Destruction League.
Climate change performance of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina
2015
Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are ranked 26th, 48th and 51st among 147 countries on the Climate Debt List in ClimatePositions (see the ‘ranking’). Their updated Climate Debts are respectively $1,660, $515 and $432 per capita. The following examines the GDP(ppp-$), CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, Forest Cover, Nuclear Power and Relative Climate Debt over time.
Climate change performance of Austria, Czech Republic and Switzerland
2015
0.4% of the global population lives in Austria, Czech Republic or Switzerland and together they emitted 0.6% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 – the joint share of the global Climate Debt is 0.7%. Austria’s updated Climate Debt per capita is $2,400 (ranked 19th), Czech Republic’s is $1,137 (ranked 34th) and Switzerland’s is $969 (ranked 38th). See the ‘ranking’. The following examines the Climate Debt trends and the indicators of CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide from fossil fuels), Nuclear Power, Environmental Performance, GDP(ppp-$) and Climate Debt as a percentage of GDP(ppp-$).
Climate change performance of Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco (refugees and the European Union)
2015
A devilish combination of poverty, armed conflict and violence in parts of Africa and Middle East, sends flows of refugees in boats across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe via Spain, Italy, Malta and Greece. In 2014 around 150,000 survived the dangerous trip to Italy alone. However, the European Union (EU) offers (as it seems) only a total of 5,000 resettlement places across Europe and the vast majority of all refugees will be sent back as irregular migrants. Read this ‘article’ from The Guardian.