Canada covers 7.3% of planet’s land area and populates 0.5% of its people. The Climate Debt of the 35 million Canadians amounts to $183 billion, or $5,138 per capita, which ‘Ranks’ Canada 10th among 148 countries. In 2010 the ranking was 7th. The following compares the Canadian performance with the ones of Australia, New Zealand, Sweden and Finland – all wealthy developed countries with small or relatively small population density¹.
Climate Debt: The United Arab Emirates ranks 4th (climate destruction branded by sports!) … soon with Nuclear Power
The per capita Climate Debt of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), accumulated since 2000, is $11,865, which ranks the rich oil-state 4th among 148 countries (see the ‘Ranking‘ by January 2016). Before proceeding, read these ten pinpoints of the intolerable situation:
In 2010 China’s share of the global Climate Debt was 7.4% and by January 2016 it has grown dramatically to 13.3% (see the ‘ranking’). Since 2000 the Chinese share of the growing global CO2 Emissions has grown from 13.7% to about 29.0% (preliminary emissions by 2014). Luckily, the populous superpower has committed itself to pursue “efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C” … according to the COP21 Paris Agreement. The following examines the development of CO2 Emissions, Environmental Performance, GDP(ppp-$), Climate Debt and Population (with respect to the one-child policy).
Update 2015: Global Population now 7.35 billion (life expectancy, births rates and an alarming prediction)
The estimated Global Population increased from 7.26 billion in 2014 to 7.35 billion in 2015 – an increase of 1.2%, or 87 million, in one year. See the population growth 1960-2015 in the diagram below. Some surprising demographic trends of life expectancy and births rates, and a long term Global Population prediction, are included.
In different ways, China and the United States are main responsible for the continuing Climate Destruction. Combined the two superpowers, holding 24% of the world population, emitted 43% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 and they accounted for 47% of the global Climate Debt¹. Had the two countries consistently promoted a fair and globally binding climate agreement, not thwarted it, then COP21 in Paris in December would not be such an incomprehensible mission impossible². The diagram below shows the per capita fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, between 1980 and 2013, of China, the United States and Rest World. The stippled lines indicate the Contribution Free Level of CO2 Emissions in ClimatePositions. More comments below the diagram.
The small authoritarian Islamic oil regimes of Bahrain and Oman are ranked 6th and 8th among 147 countries on the worst performing list (see the ‘ranking’). 0.06% of the global population lives in Bahrain or Oman and together they emitted 0.30% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 – their joint share of the global Climate Debt is around 0.66%. Bahrain’s per capita Climate Debt is now $8,668 and Oman’s is $8,077. Renewable energy and global climate change financing are largely non-existent in both countries. Welcome to Climate Destruction League.
The first diagram shows the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and cement production between 1990 and 2013 (the red dotted line). The trend is of cause outrageous and irresponsible towards future generations.
The other three lines in the diagram show the CO2 Emission trends of three country groups among 147 countries with full data in ClimatePositions, representing 97% of the global population. The three groups are divided by national income per capita in 2012:
65 Contribution Free countries…GDP-ranked (with Income Equality, Life Expectancy and Environmental Performance)
65 out of 147 countries with full data in ClimatePositions are Contribution Free (no climate debt). 41% of the world’s population lives in these Contribution Free countries and they emitted only 9% of the global carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in 2012 – without India the corresponding figures are 24% of the global population and 3% of the emissions.
The table below shows the 65 Contribution Free countries ranked by GDP(ppp-$) per capita, with Income Equality (‘Atkinson Index‘), Life Expectancy and Environmental Performance. The world’s average GDP(ppp-$) per capita was $13.791 in 2012. Analysis and comments see below the table – the color codes are explained in the bottom.
The first diagram shows the nuclear power generation per capita of the two countries. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 has caused a remarkable shutdown of generation – while CO2 Emissions from the burning of petroleum, coal and natural gas have increased (from 2011 to 2012 respectively by 6%, 5% and 3%) to close the energy gap. Nuclear power generation produce dangerous radioactive waste to deal with for thousands of future generations (10,000 to 250,000 years) and in ClimatePositions nuclear power is not accepted as a national CO2 Emission reduction instrument (read ‘more’). The following analyzes the indicator trends of Japan and South Korea.
Russia was the 4th largest carbon dioxide emitter in 2012 with 5.6% of the global emissions, after China (26.9%), the United States (16.6%) and India (5.8%). The first diagram shows Russia’s CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average (the green bars are the Contribution Free Level). After the COP summit in 2009 (at which China and the United States rejected a globally binding reduction agreement) the Russian emissions have increased dramatically and today the Russian Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $1,410 per capita (ranked 28th), compared to $627 in 2010 (ranked 32nd). See the ‘ranking’. The following analyzes the development in Putin’s Russia since 2000 in comparison with the other ‘BRICS‘ countries China, India, Brazil and South Africa – jointly emitting 41% of global carbon dioxide in 2012.
India was the 3rd largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2013 (preliminary estimate), but the per capita emissions were only about one-third of the world average. The first diagram shows India’s CO2 Emissions per capita 2000-2013 (2013-emissions are preliminary estimates). The green bars are the Contribution Free Level in ClimatePositions. As long as emissions remain below the free level, on average, the climate debt is zero dollars. However, India balances close to the limit.
Today, China ‘agreed‘ with the United States (without the Republicans!?) that the Chinese CO2 Emissions can increase by 2030, after which emissions shall decrease. The agreement is legally non-binding and can almost be seen as a confirmation of the ‘worst case climate scenario‘. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions of China (the black bars) in decades in comparison with the world average (the grey bars). The green bars show the Chinese Contribution Free Levels in ClimatePositions. Today the Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $402 per capita and the ranking is 52nd out of 147 countries (see the ‘ranking’). The updated Chinese Climate Contribution is 10.3% of the global contribution, second only to the United States (see the ‘ranking’).
Recently ‘Living Planet Report 2014’ was released by WWF. In addition to the evaluation of the earth’s ecological condition the report of 180 pages presents a new ranking of 152 countries’ Ecological Footprint per capita (pdf p 157). See the ranking in ‘graphics’. The Ecological Footprint by country is calculated by ‘Global Footprint Network’ (in collaborations with governments in order to improve data and methodology¹).
Nigeria and the neighboring countries Benin, Niger, Chad and Cameroon are Contribution Free in ClimatePositions. Nigeria is the world’s 8th most populous country and the annual population growth rate since 2000 is 2.2% or almost twice the world average (see the first diagram). The following examines the indicators of Forest, GDP(ppp), Environmental Performance, Ecological Footprint and CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide).
Nothing suggests that religiosity is a brake on the ongoing climate destruction caused by humans – simply because 84% of the global population is considered more or less religious. The following looks at the possible correlation between Climate Contribution (climate debt) and the world religions: Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism – and Other Religions and the Residual Group (including non-religious). All figures must be interpreted with great caution due to uncertainties and dilemmas in the compilation methods.
83 countries out of 145 in ClimatePositions are located in Asia, the Americas or Europe. The 83 countries represent 82% of the included population and they are responsible for 88% of the Climate Contribution (climate debt). The 145 countries represent 96% of the global population. The following compares the climate performance of Asia, the Americas and Europe. Also read the posts on ‘Africa‘ and ‘Australia‘.
The Mexican CO2 Emissions per capita over time are similar to the world trend (see the diagram) and Mexico is the world’s 12th largest CO2 emitter. Together with the neighboring countries Mexico represent the full range of Climate Contributions (climate debt) worldwide. The following examines the statistics of Mexico in comparison with United States, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.
The world’s five largest CO2 emitters – China, United States, Russia, India and Japan – are responsible for 57% of global CO2 Emissions (2006-2010) and 58% of the Climate Contributions (climate debt) in ClimatePositions 2010 (see the front diagram). Add to the group the populous Contribution Free countries Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Philippines and Ethiopia and the total share would almost reflect the world average of Population (56%), CO2 Emissions (59%) and Climate Contributions (58%). Leaders of these ten countries sitting around an imaginary negotiating table should be able to create a global climate agreement with binding CO2 reductions and full financing – but it will not happen!
The following depicts the submissions, basic statistics and negotiating positions at COP19 in Warsaw of the five largest CO2 emitters. See the five countries’ Contributions over time ‘here‘, the Contributions as a percentage of GDP ‘here‘ and read about the COP19 country groups ‘here‘.
The growing Global Population puts additional pressure on the distressed nature (deforestation, pollution, declining biodiversity, etc.) and increases the total CO2 Emissions. From 2012 to 2013 the population is estimated to have increased from 7.02 to 7.09 billion – an increase of 77 million in one year. See the development 1960-2013 in the diagram.
The negotiation process during COP19 in Warsaw in November 2013 was frustrating and largely fruitless and the following organizations and movements withdrew from the climate conference in protest: ‘Aksyon Klima Pilipinas‘, ‘ActionAid‘, ‘Bolivian Platform on Climate Change‘, ‘Construyendo Puentes‘ (Latin America), ‘Friends of the Earth‘ (Europe), ‘Greenpeace‘, ‘Ibon International‘, ‘International Trade Union Confederation‘, ‘LDC Watch‘, ‘Oxfam International‘, ‘Pan African Climate Justice Alliance‘, ‘Peoples’ Movement on Climate Change‘ (Philippines) and ‘WWF‘.
First step to understanding the inherent conflicts of interest in the COP process would be to examine the nature of the COP country groups (submission groups) – a detailed study of the complex negotiating proces is another matter.