Global Carbon Project (CDIAC), located in the United States, stops publishing carbon emissions data by country – will be replaced by EDGAR in ClimatePositions
The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), located at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, has published annual Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and cement production by country since 1959 (‘Global Carbon Project‘), but now this continuous time series has come to an end and 2015 will be the last data-year (as it seems).
Since carbon emissions data from CDIAC (Global Carbon Project) is the core ‘Indicator‘ in ClimatePositions’ calculation of Climate Debt, carbon emissions data will be replaced with nearly similar data from ‘EDGAR‘ (‘European Commission‘ / ‘Climate Action‘), retroactively since 1990, in connection with the coming updates.
The following describes the differences between CO2 Emissions data from Global Carbon Project (CDIAC) and EDGAR (sourced: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)), and the consequences in terms of Climate Debt in ClimatePositions – illustrated with a range of country examples. Note that other sources, such as ‘IEA‘, ‘EIA‘ and ‘BP‘, provides CO2 Emissions data-sets different from the ones of CDIAC and EDGAR.
2016-updates of national per capita GDP(ppp-$) from ‘World Bank‘ is now available in ‘Calculation (Excel)‘. The world’s average per capita GDP(ppp-$) grew from $15,668 in 2015 to 16,136 in 2016 (3.0% growth). The diagram below shows the development in per capita GDP(ppp-$) 2000-2016 of the world’s five largest per capita emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuel and cement: Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, Kuwait, Bahrain and Brunei; in comparison with the world average.
The difference in climate change performance of Vietnam and United Arab Emirates (UAE) is somewhat educational. Vietnam’s Climate Debt is $14 per capita, while the authoritarian oil state of UAEs is $10,884 (see the latest ‘Ranking‘). The two countries are the world’s 27th and 28th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement – combined, they emitted 0.52 % of the global CO2 in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators‘ of CO2 Emissions, Population, GDP(ppp-$) and Forest Cover (including Primary Forest).
First, the diagram below shows the national shares of the global Climate Debt, in 2017 and 2012. Both countries increased their shares in recent years, although at completely different levels and in unalike ways.
Without been fanatical about it, I seek to boycott the greediest and most climate-destructive countries on the planet. For the fairness, I have divided the fifteen nominees into two leagues:
A) Countries with per capita Climate Debts more than 10 times world average: Qatar, Kuwait, Brunei, Luxembourg, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Oman.
B) Countries with per capita Climate Debts between 5 and 10 times world average: Saudi Arabia, United States, Bahrain, Australia, Norway, Equatorial Guinea, Canada and South Korea.
Feel free to copy…
Among the fifteen countries only Luxembourg and South Korea are not among the world’s twenty largest per capita Fossil Fuel producers (read the article: ‘How green are the fossil fuel producers? (Correlation between fossil fuel production, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Climate Debt)‘.
The table below shows some key data of the fifteen countries. The table is read like this: 1) Between 1990 and 1999 Qatar emitted 55.1 tons of CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement, annually per capita, 2) Between 2000 and 2015 Qatar emitted 51.7 tons (the average Climate Debt Free Level¹ was 32.4 tons), and 3) Qatars GDP(ppp) per capita was $143,788 in 2015.
The United Kingdom and Australia and are the world’s 15th and 16th largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuels and cement. Combined, the two countries were responsible for 2.2% of world CO2 Emissions in 2015. The following examines the ‘Indicators’ of CO2 Emissions, GDP(ppp-$) and Ecological Footprint (without carbon footprint).
The diagrams below show the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (without bunkers) and cement, since 2000. The green bars show the Free Emission Level¹ – the exceedance is the basis for calculating the national Climate Debt.
The so called ‘Human Development Index 2015’ (UN) ranks Norway 1st among 188 countries. The index is based on 1) Life expectancy at birth, 2) Expected years of schooling, 3) Mean years of schooling and 4) Gross national income (GNI) per capita. However, the wealthy Scandinavian oil state ‘Ranks‘ 9th among 148 countries on Climate Debt per capita. Norway is in other words a highly human developed demolisher of the climate, one might say! The following examines the climate performance of Norway in comparison with the other top five countries from Human Development Index: Australia, Switzerland, Denmark and Netherland.
Australia covers around 5.7% of planet’s land area and populates 0.3% of its people. The Climate Debt of the 24 million Australian’s amounts to $132 billion, or $5,613 per capita, which ‘Ranks’ Australia 8th among 148 countries – in 2010 the ranking was 6th. Australia is the world’s 5th largest coal producer and the 2nd largest per capita CO2 emitter from coal combustion … and coal is the most efficient climate destroyer. The table below reveals some key figures of the world’s twenty largest coal producers. Subsequently, Australia’s climate change performance is examined in comparison with four other top-five countries on CO2 Emissions from coal combustion (per capita): Kazakhstan (ranked 1), South Africa (3), the United States (4) and Poland (5).
Canada covers 7.3% of planet’s land area and populates 0.5% of its people. The Climate Debt of the 35 million Canadians amounts to $183 billion, or $5,138 per capita, which ‘Ranks’ Canada 10th among 148 countries. In 2010 the ranking was 7th. The following compares the Canadian performance with the ones of Australia, New Zealand, Sweden and Finland – all wealthy developed countries with small or relatively small population density¹.
Worldwide, eyes are on the United States due to its massive historic greenhouse gas emissions and its sabotage of attempts to reach a fair and globally binding reduction agreement. Instead, the world is stocked with “intended nationally determined contributions towards achieving the objective […] consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” If this baloney-goal is to be taken seriously, then the United States must cut emissions from fossil fuels by around 80% (give and take), within fifteen years, or so. The following examines the development of CO2 Emissions, Environmental Performance, GDP(ppp-$) and accumulated Climate Debt.
Update 2015: Global Population now 7.35 billion (life expectancy, births rates and an alarming prediction)
The estimated Global Population increased from 7.26 billion in 2014 to 7.35 billion in 2015 – an increase of 1.2%, or 87 million, in one year. See the population growth 1960-2015 in the diagram below. Some surprising demographic trends of life expectancy and births rates, and a long term Global Population prediction, are included.
’The Global Carbon Project’ at Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) has published preliminary CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and cement for 2014, for more than 200 countries. The data is being used in a preliminary calculation of accumulated Climate Debt in ClimatePositions¹. The table below shows the estimated per capita emissions plus the updated Climate Debts, of the twenty largest total emitters (responsible for 77% of the global emissions in 2014).
Marine Protected Areas (MPA) is an umbrella term for protected seas, oceans or large lakes. The overall aim is to ensure environmental sustainability and reduce biodiversity loss. This is being pursued by setting restrictions on human development, fishing practices, fishing seasons, etc. Marine Protected Areas covers only 4% of the world’s oceans¹. The degree of protection ranges from very poor protection of more or less lifeless waters to full protection of marine reserves with precious biodiversity.
The table below includes the 82 countries with Climate Debt in ClimatePositions. Data on 199 countries’ are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)’ or at the sources. Note that the 1990 area data has been modified at the source.
How green are the fossil fuel producers? (Correlation between fossil fuel production, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Climate Debt)
Greenhouse gas emissions from burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal), is the main cause of manmade climate change. Comparable energy potentials of oil, natural gas and coal is defined as “tons oil equivalents”, meaning that the energy released from a given quantity of natural gas or coal is equivalent to one ton of oil. This way the total production of fossil fuels can be expressed in a single figure (not to be confused with market value, global warming potential or general usefulness) The world’s production in million tons oil equivalent, was in 2013: oil (4,130), natural gas (3,041 and coal (3,881).
The table below ranks the twenty countries with the largest per capita fossil fuel production (oil equivalents). Total production data of 68 countries is from ‘BPs Statistical Review of World Energy 2014’ (pdf, 48 pages).
Mongolia is the world’s second largest coal producer per capita (Btu, 2011) and coal is the world’s no. 1 carbon dioxide emitter. However, the flawed democracy (surrounded by the giant authoritarian regimes of China and Russia) is Contribution Free (no Climate Debt) in ClimatePositions – how is this possible?
The table below ranks the thirteen largest per capita coal producers (Btu, 2011), with the world average set at 1.0. The Mongolian coal production is almost ten times larger than the world average. For comparison, the table shows per capita values of CO2 Emissions (from fossil fuels), GDP(ppp-$) and Climate Debt. More comments below the table.
The two diagrams below show Australia’s and New Zealand’s CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels per capita in decades. The green bars show the Contribution Free Level and the grey bars are the world average. The average Australian per capita emissions were 16.7 tons in 1990s and 19.7 tons in 2000-2012 (18% increase). The corresponding figures of New Zealand were 8.7 tons and 9.5 tons (10% increase).
Last week the United States ‘agreed’ with China to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions between 26% and 28% from the 2005-level by 2025. The agreement is legally non-binding and without the support of the Republicans. The following analyze the new US emission target (in the bottom) and the general performance in comparison with the spying buddies in Five Eyes Alliance¹: Canada, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom.
The United States is presently ranked 10th out of 147 countries in Climate Contribution (climate debt) per capita. See the ‘ranking’. The US ‘share of the global Climate Contributions’ is now 37.0%, compared to 40.7% in 2010. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average. The green bars are the Contribution Free Level, determined by the level of CO2 Emissions in the 1990s and the eleven ‘indicators’. The declining US share of the global climate debt is mainly due to reduced CO2 Emissions while the global emissions have increased.
The national data of Forest Cover and Primary Forest are both included in the calculations of Climate Contributions (debt) in ClimatePositions. Primary Forest was included as an indicator in the worksheet in August 2014. The following describes selected findings on forests from FAO’s ‘The Global Forest Resources Assessments (FRA), 2010’ (main report, pdf, 378 pages). The Assessment is based on two primary sources of data: 1) ‘country reports’ and 2) remote sensing conducted by FAO and partners.
Since the early 1990s the passenger-kilometers of flights worldwide has increased by 5-6% per year. The CO2 Emissions (carbon dioxide) per passenger kilometer vary due to difference in flight distances¹, aircrafts and load factors (percent of occupied seats) – with average load factors First Class and Business Class are causing nine- and three-times higher emissions per passenger than Economy Class, as one study suggests². Furthermore the mixed exhaust from flights causes 2-4 times more global warming than only CO2 emitted from engines on the ground³. The accumulated climate-effect from flights might be as high as 7-9% of the total effect from anthropogenic greenhouse gases4. However, the following examines only the CO2 Emissions from flights and the implied national costs in Climate Contributions (climate debt). But first see these three seductive animations (from ‘nats‘) with 24-hours flights over ‘Europe 1:59‘, ‘Middle East 1:11‘ and ‘North Atlantic 1:52‘.
510,000 15-year old students from 65 countries were Pisa tested and ranked in Mathematics, Reading and Science in 2012. The following compares the average Pisa scores with 1) CO2 Emissions per capita and 2) Increase in Climate Contributions (climate debt) since 2010. The question is this: Do the countries which successfully emphasize “clever students” also emphasize climate responsibility and reductions in CO2 Emissions? Or may the student’s impressive skills be aimed at other national goals, such as economic growth?
Indonesia was the 73rd worst performing country out of 145 in ClimatePositions 2010 with a total Climate Contribution (climate debt) of 5.6 billion US$. As shown in the front diagram Indonesia cut down the total forest cover (mainly rainforest) from 65.4% in 1990 to 52.1% in 2010. Had Indonesia maintained the forest cover since 1990, then the saving in Contribution would have been 4.6 billion US$. In the updated calculation the Contribution (debt) has increased to 6.5 billion US$.