Posts by category: Global Temperature

Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

194 countries have agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, neither “global average temperature” nor “pre-industrial levels” are defined in the agreement. Furthermore, different scientific groups produce different temperature datasets, which are not exactly the same because of differences in the methodologies (and to complete the absurdity, the Paris Agreement contains no binding national emission pathways to the overall goal). The following temperature survey refers to datasets from ‘National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)‘.

The diagram below shows the global surface (air) temperature 1880-2016 over 1) Land, 2) Ocean and 3) Land/Ocean combined (which is most commonly used). All three baselines are 1880-1937 (set at 0°C) and the dashed lines show the average trends. Apparently, global (air) warming happens considerably faster on land than on oceans. By the way, the global warming in 2016, baseline 1880-1937, was 1.73°C (Land), 0.94°C (Ocean) and 1.15°C (Land/Ocean).

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

The year 2016 was by far the hottest on planet Earth since measurements began in 1880. Both global Land (air) Temperature and Ocean (air) Temperature were the hottest on record. See the development in Land Temperature between 1960 and 2016 in the diagram below. The average temperature rise 1880-1937 is set at 0°C (baseline 1880-1937) and 2016 was 1.73°C warmer. The development since 1880 in Land Temperature and Ocean Temperature (and the two combined) are available at ‘ncdc.noaa.gov‘.

Added 22-01-17: The Ocean Temperature 2016 was 0.94°C warmer compared to baseline 1880-1937, and Land and Ocean Temperature combined was 1.15°C warmer. Note that other sources may refer to baseline 1881-1910 or even 1951-1980.

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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The Kigali Agreement: 30-years phase-out plan for Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

The Kigali Agreement: 30-years phase-out plan for Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) is a family of factory-made potent greenhouse gases, used as refrigerants in air conditioning systems in vehicles and buildings, and in aerosol propellants, solvents, fire retardants etc. HFCs were developed as replacements for Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), because these gases deplete the ozone layer. The Kigali Agreement announced mid-October, among more than 170 countries, is an extremely complicated amendment to the ozone-shielding Montreal Protocol from 1987.

HFCs, CFCs and HCFCs are all so called Fluorinated gases, or F-gases, and they are released into the atmosphere through leaks, servicing, disposal of equipment etc. The diagram below from ‘NOAA’ shows the atmospheric content since 1978 of four commonly used F-gases.

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Study: Already developed fossil fuel reserves will potentially take us beyond the 2 degree warming limit

Study: Already developed fossil fuel reserves will potentially take us beyond the 2 degree warming limit

A ‘Study (pdf, 60 pages)’ called “The Sky’s Limit” just released by ‘Oil Change International’ finds that already developed reserves¹ of coal, oil and gas, if extracted and burned, will take us beyond the Paris Agreement’s 2°C warming limit (and of cause far beyond the 1.5°C limit). Developed reserves is defined as currently operating fields and mines (projected to run to the end of their probable lifetimes), wells already drilled, pits that are dug, and pipelines, processing facilities, railways and export terminals already constructed. The developed reserves hold roughly 30% of the fossil fuel reserves.

The study finds that the potential CO2 Emissions from these already developed reserves – if extracted and burned – will exceed the 2°C carbon budget calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The diagram below is copied from the study.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global ocean temperature January-April 2016 is scary news too (see the graph 1880-2016)

Global ocean temperature January-April 2016 is scary news too (see the graph 1880-2016)

More than 90% of the additional heat trapped in the atmosphere due to human caused greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide from burning of Fossil Fuels, is absorbed by the oceans. In continuation of the previous ‘Article’ the global ocean (air) temperature January-April 2016 was around 1.0ºC higher than the average temperature January-April between 1880 and 1937 (calculated by ClimatePositions) – see the graph. The black line shows the 136-year-trend. Compose your own graph at ‘http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global’.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global land temperature January-April is creepy feverish (see the graph 1880-2016)

Global land temperature January-April is creepy feverish (see the graph 1880-2016)

The world’s two largest economies and carbon dioxide emitters, the United States and China, have thwarted the negotiations toward a globally binding climate agreement for decades. Instead, the world is left with “intended nationally defined contributions” and the “aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” This is of cause warm air, so to speak.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Update 2015: Warmest year on record … mother Earth with fever

Update 2015: Warmest year on record … mother Earth with fever

The year 2015 was the warmest on Earth since measurements began in 1880. Both global Air Temperature and Ocean Temperature was the warmest on record. See the development in Air Temperature between 1960 and 2015 in the diagram below; the average temperature rise 1880-1937 is set at 0°C and 2015 was 1.64°C warmer.

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Sea level rises 58 m if all fossil fuels are extracted and burned

Sea level rises 58 m if all fossil fuels are extracted and burned

A new ’simulation-study from Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research’ shows that the Antarctic ice sheet would melt, causing the world’s sea level to rise about 58 m, if all the world’s resources of coal, oil and gas are extracted and burned. The following highlight some of the assumptions and outcomes of the study and besides visualize 30 m and 60 m sea level rise in fourteen of the world’s twenty largest cities (Tokyo, New York City, Seoul, Mumbai, Karachi, Osaka, Shanghai, Beijing, Calcutta, Cairo, London, Dhaka, Paris and Rio de Janeiro).

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Polynomial projections of global warming 1880-2014 … 2130

Polynomial projections of global warming 1880-2014 … 2130

The global Land (air) Temperature of 2014 was the 4th warmest ever measured. Both the global Ocean (air) Temperature and the combined Ocean and Land Temperature of 2014 were the warmest ever measured (see ‘here‘).

A ‘polynomial projection’ (or polynomial interpolation) of temperature is neither a prediction nor a scientific scenario with certain assumptions. A polynomial projection reproduces data into the future in a sounder manner than a linear projection. The five diagrams below show the global Land (air) Temperature since 1880 with polynomial projections from 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014 … projected by 2130. The red projection line start at 0°C in 1880 and the passing-years of 1°C, 2°C, 3°C etc. are marked. Read the comments below the diagrams.

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IPCC worst case scenarios from 1990 and 2014 (in comparison with the actual global warming)

IPCC worst case scenarios from 1990 and 2014 (in comparison with the actual global warming)

In October 2014 IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report 2014 was released (IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Summary for Policymakers (40 pages), the Headline Statements (2 pages), the Presentation (PowerPoint, 26 dias) and a Longer Report (116 pages) are available ‘here’. The four sub-reports 2013-2014 (a total of 5622 pages) are available ‘here’. The presentation of the gloomy message is overwhelming and totally confusing to common people (is that really necessary?).

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Videos about Global Warming

Videos about Global Warming

Climate Change science is one thing, but dissemination of quality information through the media is another. Below you will find thirteen selected free videos on various topics related to Global Warming. Film and video make the often technical discussion around Climate Change more accessible and dramatic. If after reviewing the videos you are curious to know which countries are the most resistant to reason, you can see the country ranking ‘here‘.

NOAA Research (Earth System Research Laboratory): “Time history of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January 2012”: ‘video 3:35‘.

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Global warming: Air Temperature update 2013

Global warming: Air Temperature update 2013

2013 was the 4th warmest year recorded of land Air Temperature since measurements began in 1880. See the development 1960-2013 in the diagram (the average temperature rise in 1880-1937 is set at 0°C). The last ten years of average temperature rise is the figure used in ClimatePositions.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global Air Temperature since 1960

Global Air Temperature since 1960

If the increase in average global land Air Temperature in 1880-1939 is set to 0ºC, the increase in temperature in 1960-2012 is shown in the diagram. The average increase in temperature in the last decade was 1.22 ºC – this figure is included in the latest version of ClimatePositions calculations (Excel).

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