Posts by tag: World

World CO2 Emissions 2000-2059: with 50% risk of 2C global warming (two per capita emission-scenarios for the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria)

World CO2 Emissions 2000-2059: with 50% risk of 2C global warming (two per capita emission-scenarios for the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria)

In continuation of the previous article ‘Carbon Brief: Global Carbon Budget and CO2 Emission scenarios (50% risk of 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C warming)‘, the following examines the per capita CO2 Emission budget 2000-2059, with a 50% risk of 2°C global warming (which of course is unacceptable). The outcome is then compared with Climate Debt Free CO2 Emission levels (in ClimatePositions) of the United States, Denmark, Spain, China, India and Nigeria, during the same 60-year period. Also, the Paris Agreements reduction commitment of the United States is put into perspective.

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World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and the required reduction line in ClimatePositions (emissions of three country groups by Climate Debt)

World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels and the required reduction line in ClimatePositions (emissions of three country groups by Climate Debt)

If all 97 countries with Climate Debt (see the ‘Ranking‘), had cut national emissions as required in ClimatePositions, then World Carbon Emissions would have dropped significantly as demonstrated in the diagram below. World Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels (without bunker¹) and cement amounted a total of 312 GtC (Gigaton Carbon) between 1960 and 2015 … however with the required cuts, emissions would have been 270 GtC, or 14% less … and no countries would have Climate Debt.

Recent analysis² suggest a small 0.2% growth of emission in 2016 compared to 2015 – and that four more years of current emissions “would be enough to blow what’s left of the carbon budget for a good chance of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5C.” Not so smart!

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My own climate change boycott country-list

My own climate change boycott country-list

Without been fanatical about it, I seek to boycott the greediest and most climate-destructive countries on the planet. For the fairness, I have divided the fifteen nominees into two leagues:

A) Countries with per capita Climate Debts more than 10 times world average: Qatar, Kuwait, Brunei, Luxembourg, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates and Oman.

B) Countries with per capita Climate Debts between 5 and 10 times world average: Saudi Arabia, United States, Bahrain, Australia, Norway, Equatorial Guinea, Canada and South Korea.

Feel free to copy…

Among the fifteen countries only Luxembourg and South Korea are not among the world’s twenty largest per capita Fossil Fuel producers (read the article: ‘How green are the fossil fuel producers? (Correlation between fossil fuel production, CO2 Emissions, GDP and Climate Debt)‘.

The table below shows some key data of the fifteen countries. The table is read like this: 1) Between 1990 and 1999 Qatar emitted  55.1 tons of CO2 from Fossil Fuels (without bunker) and cement, annually per capita, 2) Between 2000 and 2015 Qatar emitted 51.7 tons (the average Climate Debt Free Level¹ was 32.4 tons), and 3) Qatars GDP(ppp) per capita was $143,788 in 2015.

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Indicator update: Climate change financing as share of Climate Debt, by country (Climate Funds Update)

Indicator update: Climate change financing as share of Climate Debt, by country (Climate Funds Update)

Climate Funds Update‘ is providing information on finance for developing countries to address climate change. Around $26 billion has currently been funded (money deposited; data from October 2016), of which 96% is country-sourced. If all sources of income are included¹, then the funds amount to $30 billion, of which 81% is country-sourced. The country-sourced climate finance has increased by 25% since June 2016 (in eight months). The previous seven month the increase was 24%.

The table below shows: 1) the current Climate Debt per capita in ClimatePositions, 2) the per capita climate change financing (funding) to developing countries and 3) the climate financing as share of the Climate Debt. The table includes 35 countries with both climate change financing and Climate Debt in ClimatePositions. Note that only countries with full data in ClimatePositions are included.

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Claus Andersen
by in / Global Temperature
Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

Global warming: pre-industrial temperature, baselines, measurements and the 2C limit

194 countries have agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, neither “global average temperature” nor “pre-industrial levels” are defined in the agreement. Furthermore, different scientific groups produce different temperature datasets, which are not exactly the same because of differences in the methodologies (and to complete the absurdity, the Paris Agreement contains no binding national emission pathways to the overall goal). The following temperature survey refers to datasets from ‘National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)‘.

The diagram below shows the global surface (air) temperature 1880-2016 over 1) Land, 2) Ocean and 3) Land/Ocean combined (which is most commonly used). All three baselines are 1880-1937 (set at 0°C) and the dashed lines show the average trends. Apparently, global (air) warming happens considerably faster on land than on oceans. By the way, the global warming in 2016, baseline 1880-1937, was 1.73°C (Land), 0.94°C (Ocean) and 1.15°C (Land/Ocean).

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

Global Indicator Update: Land Temperature 2016 (warmest year on record)

The year 2016 was by far the hottest on planet Earth since measurements began in 1880. Both global Land (air) Temperature and Ocean (air) Temperature were the hottest on record. See the development in Land Temperature between 1960 and 2016 in the diagram below. The average temperature rise 1880-1937 is set at 0°C (baseline 1880-1937) and 2016 was 1.73°C warmer. The development since 1880 in Land Temperature and Ocean Temperature (and the two combined) are available at ‘ncdc.noaa.gov‘.

Added 22-01-17: The Ocean Temperature 2016 was 0.94°C warmer compared to baseline 1880-1937, and Land and Ocean Temperature combined was 1.15°C warmer. Note that other sources may refer to baseline 1881-1910 or even 1951-1980.

Added 07-02-2017: Soon, the global temperature ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePosition will be changed from Land (air) Temperature (10-years average) to Land/Ocean (air) Temperature (10-years average). The change will not affect the current accumulated Climate Debt of any country, only the future calculation.

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Final Update 2015: new rankings of 159 countries’ Climate Debt, accumulated since 2000

Final Update 2015: new rankings of 159 countries’ Climate Debt, accumulated since 2000

Every five year, since 2005, Final Updates of national Climate Debts are completed in ClimatePositions and 2015-updates¹ are now available in ‘Calculation (Excel)‘. New rankings in six categories, of 159 countries, are available in the menu “Climate Debt”. In the coming months, the climate change performances of selected countries will be analyzed in articles, starting with the United States and China.

The following illustrate Final Update 2015 in two ways: 1) The change of Climate Debt as percentage of the global Climate Debt, annually since 2000, of the 10 largest CO2 emitters, and 2) Key-figures of the United States.

The table below of the 10 largest CO2 emitters (representing 70% of the global emissions in 2015) shows the national shares of the global Climate Debt in 2015 and 2010. China, Russia and Saudi Arabia stand out with extremely harmful developments, while the United States still has by far the largest Climate Debt. See the latest ‘Ranking’ of 159 countries.

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Indicator update: Per capita CO2 Emissions 2015, by country (preliminary)

Indicator update: Per capita CO2 Emissions 2015, by country (preliminary)

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)‘, or simply Global Carbon Project, has published preliminary¹ national carbon emissions, from Fossil Fuels and cement, in 2015. The total national carbon emissions are converted to per capita carbon dioxide emissions (tons of CO2 Emissions) by multiplying by 3.664 and then divide by Population (sourced ‘World Bank‘).

The table below shows the per capita CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (without bunkers) and cement, in tons, in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 of all 97 countries with Climate Debt in ClimatePositions, after the key indicator update (see the ‘Ranking‘). Updates of 199 countries are available in the menu ‘Calculation (Excel)‘. Note that emissions in 2014 and 2015 are preliminary estimates.

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Indicator update: Ecological Footprint (Climate Debt of 15 additional small countries)

Indicator update: Ecological Footprint (Climate Debt of 15 additional small countries)

The per capita Ecological Footprint¹ for 186 countries has been released for licensing by ‘Global Footprint Network’ (Public Data Package – Free Download). The total national Footprint without the weighty carbon Footprint² is used as an ‘Indicator’ in ClimatePositions. Now 15 additional small countries have full data and thus calculation of Climate Debt for the first time. The per capita Climate Debt of these countries are listed below. Brunei, Luxembourg and Equatorial Guinea enter top-ten of the worst performing countries among the previous 148 countries (see the ‘Ranking’ by January 2016).

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Update: GDP(ppp-$) 2015

Update: GDP(ppp-$) 2015

2015-updates of national per capita GDP(ppp-$) from ‘World Bank’ is now available in ‘Calculation (Excel)’. The world’s average per capita GDP(ppp-$) grew from $15,065 in 2014 to $15,470 in 2015 (2.7% growth). In the midst of an unprecedented man-made climate catastrophe and the ‘Sixth mass extinction’ in progress, the human economy keeps growing.

The diagram below shows the development in per capita GDP(ppp-$) 2000-2015 of the world’s five largest emitters of CO2 from Fossil Fuel and cement: China (27.0% of the global emissions), the United States (14.7%), India (7.2%), Russia (4.9%) and Japan (3.4%), in comparison with the world’s average.

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The Kigali Agreement: 30-years phase-out plan for Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

The Kigali Agreement: 30-years phase-out plan for Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) is a family of factory-made potent greenhouse gases, used as refrigerants in air conditioning systems in vehicles and buildings, and in aerosol propellants, solvents, fire retardants etc. HFCs were developed as replacements for Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), because these gases deplete the ozone layer. The Kigali Agreement announced mid-October, among more than 170 countries, is an extremely complicated amendment to the ozone-shielding Montreal Protocol from 1987.

HFCs, CFCs and HCFCs are all so called Fluorinated gases, or F-gases, and they are released into the atmosphere through leaks, servicing, disposal of equipment etc. The diagram below from ‘NOAA’ shows the atmospheric content since 1978 of four commonly used F-gases.

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Reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Eat insects instead of meat

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Eat insects instead of meat

The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) is the major driving force for global warming¹. However, livestock rearing is responsible for around 18% of the anthropological greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) and various edible insects are therefore excellent alternatives to meat in the fight against climate change. It is estimated that insects today is part of the diets of 25-30% of the global population and about 1,900 species are being used as human consumption. The following examine the climate- and environmental impact of different species of insects versus beef, pigs and chicken.

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Study: Already developed fossil fuel reserves will potentially take us beyond the 2 degree warming limit

Study: Already developed fossil fuel reserves will potentially take us beyond the 2 degree warming limit

A ‘Study (pdf, 60 pages)’ called “The Sky’s Limit” just released by ‘Oil Change International’ finds that already developed reserves¹ of coal, oil and gas, if extracted and burned, will take us beyond the Paris Agreement’s 2°C warming limit (and of cause far beyond the 1.5°C limit). Developed reserves is defined as currently operating fields and mines (projected to run to the end of their probable lifetimes), wells already drilled, pits that are dug, and pipelines, processing facilities, railways and export terminals already constructed. The developed reserves hold roughly 30% of the fossil fuel reserves.

The study finds that the potential CO2 Emissions from these already developed reserves – if extracted and burned – will exceed the 2°C carbon budget calculated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The diagram below is copied from the study.

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Research: The emerging mass extinction in the ocean threaten larger animals more compared to past mass extinctions (more bad news)

Research: The emerging mass extinction in the ocean threaten larger animals more compared to past mass extinctions (more bad news)

The research ‘Ecological selectivity of the emerging mass extinction in the oceans‘ (pdf, 4 pages), published in the journal Science, show that “extinction threat in the modern oceans is strongly associated with large body size, whereas past extinction events were either nonselective or preferentially removed smaller-bodied taxa.” Or in other words: The balance between smaller animals and larger animals changes to the disadvantage of larger animals – due to human impact.

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Report: Explaining Ocean Warming (the greatest hidden challenge of our generation)

Report: Explaining Ocean Warming (the greatest hidden challenge of our generation)

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)’ has recently published the report ‘Explaining Ocean Warming (pdf, 460 pages)‘ representing the most comprehensive review to date on ocean warming. IUCN is the world’s largest environmental network, harnessing the knowledge and research of around 1,300 organizations and 16,000 experts. The chapters and sections in the report tells in the scientist’s own words the scale and nature of changes being driven by ocean warming, often in association with other stressors such as ocean acidification and oxygen reductions. The following is an adapted summary of the report’s conclusions and recommendations.

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Predicted impact of climate change: $369 trillion by 2200 (study)

Predicted impact of climate change: $369 trillion by 2200 (study)

Nobody knows how high the costs of global warming will be in the future. However, ‘Studies’ predict a total of $369 trillion by 2200, assuming that humans will have stopped emitting greenhouse gases from burning Fossil Fuels around 2100 and atmospheric CO2 concentrations will have reached 700 ppm. The calculations include accelerating release of methane from melting permafrost (13% of the total costs).

ClimatePositions calculates the ‘Climate Debt’, accumulated since 2000, for 148 countries with full data. The global Climate Debt amounted to $0.8 trillion in 2005, $2.6 trillion in 2010 and around $6.0 trillion in 2015 (preliminary estimate). The diagram below illustrates the accumulated Climate Debts (red dots) “smooth climbing” towards the predicted costs of $369 trillion by 2200 (black dot) … all speculatively of course!

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Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines accuses Shell, BP, Chevron, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and 42 other carbon companies of breaching people’s fundamental rights to life, food, water, sanitation, adequate housing and self-determination

Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines accuses Shell, BP, Chevron, BHP Billiton, Anglo American and 42 other carbon companies of breaching people’s fundamental rights to life, food, water, sanitation, adequate housing and self-determination

According to ‘The Guardian’ the Filipino government body ‘Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines‘ have given the world’s largest oil, coal, cement and mining companies 45 days to respond to a ‘legal complaint (pdf, 65 p)‘ that their greenhouse gas emissions have violated the human rights of millions of people living in the Philippines.

The UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights explicitly call on companies to respect human rights, and there are three scenarios in which a company can be hold responsible for adverse impacts on human rights, quote: “(1) it may cause impacts through its own activities; (2) it may contribute to impacts through its own activities, either directly or through some outside entity (government, business, or other); and (3) it may be involved in impacts caused by an entity that is directly linked to its business operations, products, or services.”

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Forest Cover and Primary Forests 1990-2015 (two country groups are examined)

Forest Cover and Primary Forests 1990-2015 (two country groups are examined)

This article is sourced from two publications by ‘FAO’: ‘Forest Ecology and Management 2015 (pdf 145 p)’ and ’Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015 (pdf 253 p)’. The latter contains 46 different tables¹ with 234 countries and territories forest development 1990-2015.

Primary Forest is defined as naturally regenerated forest of native species, where there are no clearly visible indications of human activities and the ecological processes are not significantly disturbed. Today, Primary forest accounts for 32% of global Forest Cover and has apparently increased by around 6.8% between 1990 and 2015, however, this increase is largely due to the fact that more countries have submitted data for the statistic. This taken into account, an overall global Primary Forest loss of 2.5%, since 1990, is more likely (and 10.0% loss in the tropics).

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Update 2016: Climate financing as share of Climate Debt, by country

Update 2016: Climate financing as share of Climate Debt, by country

[Modified version posted 17 June 2016] ‘Climate Funds Update’ is an independent website providing information on climate finance designed for developing countries to address climate change. The data is based on information received from 25 multilateral, bilateral, regional and national climate funds and the funding is largely up to date by the end of May 2016. A total of $21 billion has currently been funded (money deposited), of which around 95% is country-sourced. The global climate finance has increased by approximately 24% since October 2015 (in seven months). The table below shows the Climate Debt per capita in ClimatePositions, the per capita climate financing (funding) to developing countries and the climate financing as share of the Climate Debt.

The table includes 35 countries with both climate financing and Climate Debt in ClimatePositions (only countries with full data in ClimatePositions are included).

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World’s Nuclear Power generation 2015: 1.3% growth compared to 2014

World’s Nuclear Power generation 2015: 1.3% growth compared to 2014

The world’s Nuclear Power generation increased by 1.3% in 2015 compared to 2014 (and 4.0% increase compared to 2012). The table below shows the generation in billion kWh of all Nuclear Power nations and the global generation, since 2010. China increased the generation by 30.2% in 2015 compared to 2014, while the rest of the world the decreased the generation by 0.3%. The global generation level in 2015 is still 7.1% below the 2010-level.

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