Polynomial projections of global warming 1880-2014 … 2130
2015
The global Land (air) Temperature of 2014 was the 4th warmest ever measured. Both the global Ocean (air) Temperature and the combined Ocean and Land Temperature of 2014 were the warmest ever measured (see ‘here‘).
A ‘polynomial projection’ (or polynomial interpolation) of temperature is neither a prediction nor a scientific scenario with certain assumptions. A polynomial projection reproduces data into the future in a sounder manner than a linear projection. The five diagrams below show the global Land (air) Temperature since 1880 with polynomial projections from 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014 … projected by 2130. The red projection line start at 0°C in 1880 and the passing-years of 1°C, 2°C, 3°C etc. are marked. Read the comments below the diagrams.
Climate finance to developing countries compared to climate debt by country
2015
The independent website ‘Climate Funds Update’ provides information on international climate finance initiatives designed to help developing countries address the challenges of climate change. By comparing the present climate funding (money deposited¹ by January 2015) to the accumulated national Climate Contributions (climate debt) in ClimatePositions the mismatch between climate debt and payments are exposed. The 82 countries in the table below are ranked by Climate Funding (financing) as percentage of the Climate Contributions … 48 of the countries have paid zero!
Update 2014 of the CO2 Content in the atmosphere
2015
The CO2 Content in the atmosphere measured in ppm (parts per million) set a new record in 2014 (as in all years in decades). In 2013 the content was 396.48 ppm and in 2014 it was 398.55 ppm – this updated figure is used in ClimatePositions.
Sea Level update 2014
2015
The estimated global Sea Level increase rate is unchanged 0.32 cm annually since 1993. The increase between 1880 and 1993 is set at 14.00 cm. This adds up to a total Sea Level rise from 1880 to 2014 at 20.72 cm – this figure is used in ClimatePositions.
Climate change performance of South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Namibia
2015
36 out of 44 African countries in ClimatePositions are Contribution Free and the total climate debt of the African continent is 1.1% of the global climate debt – the share of the global population and CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels is respectively around 13.8% and 3.7%. The eight countries ranked below stand out in Africa by having a climate debt. This article analyses the performance of South Africa, Botswana, Angola and Namibia.
65 Contribution Free countries…GDP-ranked (with Income Equality, Life Expectancy and Environmental Performance)
2014
65 out of 147 countries with full data in ClimatePositions are Contribution Free (no climate debt). 41% of the world’s population lives in these Contribution Free countries and they emitted only 9% of the global carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in 2012 – without India the corresponding figures are 24% of the global population and 3% of the emissions.
The table below shows the 65 Contribution Free countries ranked by GDP(ppp-$) per capita, with Income Equality (‘Atkinson Index‘), Life Expectancy and Environmental Performance. The world’s average GDP(ppp-$) per capita was $13.791 in 2012. Analysis and comments see below the table – the color codes are explained in the bottom.
Brazil’s rainforests and climate change performance
2014
The Google map of the Amazon is from the new interactive ‘Global Forest Change‘ developed by The University of Maryland (read ‘more’). The red is Forest Loss from 2000 to 2012, the blue is Forest Gain and the green is Forest Extent (unchanged). The purple is areas of mixed Forest Loss and Forest Gain. According to Brazil’s environment minister the lowest recorded deforestation of Brazil since 1988, was in 2012. Furthermore, up to a third of the cleared rainforest over the past decades may be on the way back (regrowth).
COP20 in Lima: Derailed negotiations and depressed scientists
2014
Since ‘COP1 in Berlin’ in 1995 the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels have increased by 50% (in addition to increased greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation, cement production, melting permafrost, etc.). The purpose of COP1, COP2, COP3, COP4, COP5, COP6, COP7, COP8, COP9, COP10, COP11, COP12, COP13, COP14, COP15, COP16, COP17, COP18 and COP19 were to reduce dangerous greenhouse gases and counteract global warming. The current COP20 in Lima builds on twenty years of mushrooming in a flawed system without tools to secure meaningful negotiations and reject derailments caused by powerful nations such as the United States and China. Meanwhile, depression¹ is spreading from climate scientists to larger parts of the planet’s population.
Climate change performance of Saudi Arabia and Canada
2014
The first diagram shows the relative Climate Contribution (debt) per capita of Saudi Arabia, Canada, China, the United States and Russia, with the world’s average set at 100. Around 2007 Saudi Arabia passed Canada and since then, the gap has grown considerably. Today, the climate debt per capita accumulated since 2000 are respectively $7,936 and $5,128 (see the ‘ranking’).
The Climate Contributions are calculated by using eleven ‘indicators’ of which national CO2 Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is the principal. Extraction and export of fossil fuels is not one of the indicators which Saudi Arabia should be thankful for – wealth measured as ‘GDP(ppp-$)‘, however, is an indicator.
The United Kingdom beats Germany in climate change performance
2014
Germany is ranked 24th and United Kingdom 33rd among 147 countries on the list of the worst performing countries in ClimatePositions. See the ‘ranking’. The German Climate Contribution (debt) accumulated since 2000 has increased from $980 per capita in 2010 to $1,640 in the latest calculation, while the one of the United Kingdom has increased from $796 to $1,156. The first diagram shows the relative climate debt of the two countries in comparison with France, Italy and Poland, with the world average set at 100. Since 2010, the United Kingdom is the only country among the five that has improved significantly. The world average climate debt has increased from $455 per capita in 2010 to $769 in the latest calculation (this increase reflects both the growing CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and the growing economy). The following analyses some trends for Germany and the United Kingdom.
Climate change performance: Japan vs. South Korea
2014
The first diagram shows the nuclear power generation per capita of the two countries. The Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 has caused a remarkable shutdown of generation – while CO2 Emissions from the burning of petroleum, coal and natural gas have increased (from 2011 to 2012 respectively by 6%, 5% and 3%) to close the energy gap. Nuclear power generation produce dangerous radioactive waste to deal with for thousands of future generations (10,000 to 250,000 years) and in ClimatePositions nuclear power is not accepted as a national CO2 Emission reduction instrument (read ‘more’). The following analyzes the indicator trends of Japan and South Korea.
NASA video showing one year of carbon dioxide emissions swirling in the atmosphere
2014
‘NASA’ has released this simulated ‘video 3:10’ showing the global carbon dioxide emissions in 2006 in three minutes. The simulation illustrates plumes of CO2 swirling and shifting as winds disperse the emissions away from its sources. The animation also shows the swings in concentrations as the growth cycle of plants and trees changes with the seasons. ‘CO Emissions’ (monoxide) from forest fires are also visualized in the video.
Since 2006 the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels have increased by 14% and the CO2 content in the atmosphere has increased from 382 ppm in 2006 to 396 ppm in 2013. Below are ranked the twenty countries¹ with the largest CO2 Emissions per capita in 2012, with the climate dept per capita and the percentage of the global Climate Contribution (climate debt). The calculations of climate debt and the data of all countries are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)’.
Climate change performance of Russia (compared to other BRICS countries)
2014
Russia was the 4th largest carbon dioxide emitter in 2012 with 5.6% of the global emissions, after China (26.9%), the United States (16.6%) and India (5.8%). The first diagram shows Russia’s CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average (the green bars are the Contribution Free Level). After the COP summit in 2009 (at which China and the United States rejected a globally binding reduction agreement) the Russian emissions have increased dramatically and today the Russian Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $1,410 per capita (ranked 28th), compared to $627 in 2010 (ranked 32nd). See the ‘ranking’. The following analyzes the development in Putin’s Russia since 2000 in comparison with the other ‘BRICS‘ countries China, India, Brazil and South Africa – jointly emitting 41% of global carbon dioxide in 2012.
CO2 Emissions 2013: India is still Contribution Free (but how long?)
2014
India was the 3rd largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2013 (preliminary estimate), but the per capita emissions were only about one-third of the world average. The first diagram shows India’s CO2 Emissions per capita 2000-2013 (2013-emissions are preliminary estimates). The green bars are the Contribution Free Level in ClimatePositions. As long as emissions remain below the free level, on average, the climate debt is zero dollars. However, India balances close to the limit.
Climate change performance of the United States 2000-2013 (and the new emission target)
2014
Last week the United States ‘agreed’ with China to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions between 26% and 28% from the 2005-level by 2025. The agreement is legally non-binding and without the support of the Republicans. The following analyze the new US emission target (in the bottom) and the general performance in comparison with the spying buddies in Five Eyes Alliance¹: Canada, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom.
The United States is presently ranked 10th out of 147 countries in Climate Contribution (climate debt) per capita. See the ‘ranking’. The US ‘share of the global Climate Contributions’ is now 37.0%, compared to 40.7% in 2010. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions per capita in decades in comparison with the world average. The green bars are the Contribution Free Level, determined by the level of CO2 Emissions in the 1990s and the eleven ‘indicators’. The declining US share of the global climate debt is mainly due to reduced CO2 Emissions while the global emissions have increased.
China’s growing climate debt and carbon dioxide emissions is catastrophic
2014
Today, China ‘agreed‘ with the United States (without the Republicans!?) that the Chinese CO2 Emissions can increase by 2030, after which emissions shall decrease. The agreement is legally non-binding and can almost be seen as a confirmation of the ‘worst case climate scenario‘. The first diagram shows the CO2 Emissions of China (the black bars) in decades in comparison with the world average (the grey bars). The green bars show the Chinese Contribution Free Levels in ClimatePositions. Today the Climate Contribution (climate debt) is $402 per capita and the ranking is 52nd out of 147 countries (see the ‘ranking’). The updated Chinese Climate Contribution is 10.3% of the global contribution, second only to the United States (see the ‘ranking’).
New ranking 2014 – update of 147 countries’ climate debt
2014
The data in ClimatePositions are updated consecutively and since the data year 2010 the eleven ‘indicators’ have all been updated.
The new rankings of 147 countries are now available in the menu “Contributions” (with six categories).
All country data and diagrams are available in the menu ‘Calculations (Excel)’. In the coming months selected countries will be analyzed in articles. The following illustrates the latest updates in two ways: 1) The change of climate debt as a percentage of the global climate debt of the twelve largest CO2 emitters, and 2) The key-figures of the United Kingdom.
IPCC worst case scenarios from 1990 and 2014 (in comparison with the actual global warming)
2014
In October 2014 IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report 2014 was released (IPCC = Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Summary for Policymakers (40 pages), the Headline Statements (2 pages), the Presentation (PowerPoint, 26 dias) and a Longer Report (116 pages) are available ‘here’. The four sub-reports 2013-2014 (a total of 5622 pages) are available ‘here’. The presentation of the gloomy message is overwhelming and totally confusing to common people (is that really necessary?).
New greenhouse gas targets of the European Union: 40% reductions in 40 years
2014
The 28 countries in the European Union (EU) have recently decided three new greenhouse gas reduction targets of the EU by 2030 in comparison with 1990 levels:
- Binding reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 40%.
- Binding increase of the share of renewable energy to 27% of the energy consumption.
- Indicative (optional) increase of energy efficiency by 27%.
The fracking scream
2014
The production of natural gas due to the use of fracking (hydraulic fracturing) – called shale gas – has increased dramatically in the United States1 and Canada in recent years. Many more countries have tempting fracking-potential2. But how does fracking affect environment, global CO2 Emissions and climate change?