Every second year Yale and Colombia Universities, in collaboration with the World Economic Forum, publish an Environmental Performance Index (EPI) with global ranking. The 2016 edition with ‘Ranking of 180 countries‘ is now available – click on individual countries at the sourse to see more details on Biodiversity and Habitat, Forests, Climate and Energy, Fisheries, Agriculture, Water Resources, Water and Sanitation, Health Impacts and Air Quality. Scores are converted to a scale of 0 to 100, with 0 being the worst observed value and 100 the best. The seven best performing countries are ranked in the table (copied from the site).
So far, ‘EIA’ has been the source of national CO2 Emissions in ClimatePositions. EIA include emissions from burning of fossil fuel, including bunker fuels (fuels used for international aviation and maritime transport). Globally, bunker fuels account for about 3% of all fossil fuel CO2 Emissions.
By January 2016, the source of CO2 Emissions used in ClimatePositions switches to ‘Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)’, or simply Global Carbon Project. CDIAC also include emissions from burning of fossil fuel, but exclude emissions from bunker fuels (fuels used for international aviation and maritime transport), and instead include ‘CO2 Emissions from cement production’. Emissions from cement production (and oxidation) amount to about 5% of all fossil fuel emissions, globally. The total annual national carbon emissions at the source are subsequently converted¹ to per capita CO2 Emissions for the use in ClimatePositions. Note that emissions 2012-2014 are preliminary estimates².
For comparison, the table below shows the national shares of the global Climate Debt, respectively, with CO2 Emission data from 1) Global Carbon Project (CDIAC) and 2) EIA. Countries with increased Climate Debt, relatively, due to the conversion of sources are marked in red. The global Climate Debt will only be slightly affected by the change (the global Climate Debt is 5.7 trillion by Januar 2016).
From today, Global Carbon Project will be used as source of CO2 Emissions in ClimatePositions. New rankings are available in the menu “Climate Debt”. More comments below the table.
The year 2015 was the warmest on Earth since measurements began in 1880. Both global Air Temperature and Ocean Temperature was the warmest on record. See the development in Air Temperature between 1960 and 2015 in the diagram below; the average temperature rise 1880-1937 is set at 0°C and 2015 was 1.64°C warmer.
Update 2015: Global Population now 7.35 billion (life expectancy, births rates and an alarming prediction)
The estimated Global Population increased from 7.26 billion in 2014 to 7.35 billion in 2015 – an increase of 1.2%, or 87 million, in one year. See the population growth 1960-2015 in the diagram below. Some surprising demographic trends of life expectancy and births rates, and a long term Global Population prediction, are included.
The carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere passed 400 ppm (parts per million) in 2015 (mean). In 2014 the content was 398.61 ppm and in 2015 it was 400.83 ppm – the annually updated figure is used in ClimatePositions.
See the alarming development 1960-2015 in the diagram below. The pre-industrial level was below 300 ppm and 350 ppm is considered the relatively safe limit. Human-caused CO2 Emissions is the main cause of global warming, melting ice sheets, sea level rise and escalation of extreme weather events.
During 2015 the average estimated rate of global Sea Level rise since 1993 increased from 3.2 mm (±0.4 mm) annually to 3.3 mm (±0.4 mm). This indicates a slowly continually accelerating rate of Sea Level rise. In ClimatePositions the Sea Level rise between 1880 and 1993 is set at 1.2 mm annually, or 14.00 cm in total, and combined this adds up to a total estimated Sea Level rise between 1880 and 2015 of 21.26 cm (this figure is used in ClimatePositions).
The COP21 ‘Paris Agreement’ (31 p), backed by 196 countries, emphasizes the urgent need to address the greenhouse gas emission gap between the aggregate effect of the 187 intended nationally defined contributions (INDCs/pledges) and the “aggregate emission pathways consistent with holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C”. This feverish understatement about the emission gab is clarified in the ‘Synthesis report (UN)’ on the aggregate effect of the pledges. The report says that the aggregate effect of the submitted pledges (INDCs) will bring the global cumulative CO2 Emissions up to around 72%–77% of the remaining carbon budget by 2030 (emitting 100% will leave the planet with 66% change of a temperature rise of less than 2°C). In other words: If the pledges are fulfilled perfectly, then three quarters of the remaining carbon budget will be used within 15 years … and thereafter emissions will have to dive deeply to zero before 2040. The critical situation is envisioned graphically below.
’The Global Carbon Project’ at Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) has published preliminary CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and cement for 2014, for more than 200 countries. The data is being used in a preliminary calculation of accumulated Climate Debt in ClimatePositions¹. The table below shows the estimated per capita emissions plus the updated Climate Debts, of the twenty largest total emitters (responsible for 77% of the global emissions in 2014).
The national Climate Debt in ClimatePositions increases with growing GDP(ppp-$)¹. 2014-updates of GDP from ‘World Bank’ are now available in ‘Calculation (Excel)’. The world’s average per capita GDP(ppp-$) grew from $14,417 in 2013 to $14,939 in 2014. The diagram below shows the development in GDP(ppp-$) in 2000-2014 of the world average and five of the world’s largest per capita fossil fuel CO2 Emitters (in 2012): Qatar (50.8 tons of CO2), United Arab Emirates (44.0 tons), Singapore (38.8 tons), Bahrain (25.8 tons) and Saudi Arabia (22.0 tons).
The calculation of Climate Debt in ClimatePositions is based on a balance between many ‘indicators’ and a common global per capita CO2 target. To illustrate the nature of this balance twelve countries are analyzed in this article in terms of the indicator of GDP(ppp-$) and the global CO2 target. The 12-Countries Group represents 38% of the global population, 65% of the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and around 70% of the global Climate Debt.
‘Climate Funds Update’ is an independent website providing information on climate finance designed for developing countries to address climate change. The data is based on information received from 25 multilateral, bilateral, regional and national climate funds and the funding is largely up to date by the end of June 2015. A total of $17 billion has currently been funded (money deposited), of which 96% is country-sourced¹. The updated table below shows the level of national climate financing to developing countries, as percentage of the accumulated Climate Debt. The values are based on the latest available updates.
The United Nations site for the ‘Millennium Development Goals Indicators’ (MDG Indicators) has published the estimated Forest Cover as percentage of land area of 225 countries. The table at the bottom includes only 83 selected countries with Climate Debt in ClimatePositions (the fraction of the Climate Debt caused by Forest Cover-change is revealed). However, Forest Cover alone is a poor ecosystem-indicator and therefore the area with the precious Primary Forests is also included in ClimatePositions (read the article ‘Forest Cover, Primary Forests and Climate Debt’).
In different ways, China and the United States are main responsible for the continuing Climate Destruction. Combined the two superpowers, holding 24% of the world population, emitted 43% of the global CO2 from fossil fuels in 2012 and they accounted for 47% of the global Climate Debt¹. Had the two countries consistently promoted a fair and globally binding climate agreement, not thwarted it, then COP21 in Paris in December would not be such an incomprehensible mission impossible². The diagram below shows the per capita fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions, between 1980 and 2013, of China, the United States and Rest World. The stippled lines indicate the Contribution Free Level of CO2 Emissions in ClimatePositions. More comments below the diagram.
A new ’simulation-study from Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research’ shows that the Antarctic ice sheet would melt, causing the world’s sea level to rise about 58 m, if all the world’s resources of coal, oil and gas are extracted and burned. The following highlight some of the assumptions and outcomes of the study and besides visualize 30 m and 60 m sea level rise in fourteen of the world’s twenty largest cities (Tokyo, New York City, Seoul, Mumbai, Karachi, Osaka, Shanghai, Beijing, Calcutta, Cairo, London, Dhaka, Paris and Rio de Janeiro).
Estimates from the ‘International Monetary Fund’ (IMF) show that fossil fuel subsidies of 155 countries representing 98% of the world’s population, amounted $4.2 trillion (5.8% of global GDP) in 2011 and $4.9 trillion (6.5% of global GDP) in 2013. Projections for 2015 suggest $5.3 trillion (6.5% of global GDP). This huge amount of subsidies is of cause plain stupid.
For comparison, the total ‘Climate Debt of 147 countries‘ in ClimatePositions, accumulated between 2000 and 2013, amounted $5.2 trillion. Roughly speaking, one year of global subsidies equals the total accumulated Climate Debt. Note that global climate change funding is only around $0.14 trillion.
COP Submissions with intended national emission targets of 44 countries¹, responsible for 70% of the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels, are now available for study. Among the seven largest emitters only India’s submission is still missing. China, the world’s largest emitter, intends to reach its maximum emissions by 2030 (maybe earlier) and then reduce … which leaves global scenarios open to assumptions. The calculations in this article are based on 10% and 30% increase of the Chinese emissions by 2030, compared to 2013.
Historic use of phrases such as Climate Change, Biodiversity, Renewable Energy, Fracking, etc. (Google Books Ngram Viewer)
‘Ngram Viewer’ is a Google search service showing graphs of historic use of words and phrases in books published in the United States (until 2008). The diagram below shows the trend of the phrases: Climate Change, Biodiversity, Global Warming, Deforestation, Renewable Energy, Greenhouse Effect, Invasive Species and Fracking. The corpus search is in “English” (case-insensitive), between 1980 and 2008. Read the comments below the diagram.
The world’s Nuclear Power generation increased by 2.2% in 2014 compared to 2013. The six largest nuclear producers United States, France, Russia, South Korea, China and Canada increased generation by 4.0%, while the rest of the world reduced generation by 3.9%.
The same six Nuclear Power countries, representing 28% of the world’s population, are responsible for 54% of the global CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels and 60% of the global Climate Debt (see the ‘ranking’).
The last five years of generated global nuclear electricity was:
This article is about the different greenhouse gases and what appears to be a delaying COP negotiation strategy on the road to a potentially very costly global greenhouse gas reduction agreement. The essential climate change problem (as I see it) is the greenhouse gas emissions related to fossil fuels. As an example, around 82% of all anthropologic greenhouse gases in the United States are related to coal, oil or natural gas. This measure includes emissions of three different greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Since 1990 the atmospheric concentrations of these three gases has increases by around 13% (carbon dioxide), 7% (methane) and 6% (nitrous oxide). However, the three gases are also emitted from other sources than fossil fuels, including many natural sources … in addition, the potent synthetic fluorinated gases (F-gases) are not related to fossil fuels at all. On a global scale the overall picture is extremely complicated. Note that water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas among all, but it is not considered relevant to the anthropogenic global warming – and therefore water vapor is usually not regarded as a greenhouse gas.
Between 2000 and 2012 the global consumption of ‘Primary Energy’ increased by 32%, the global CO2 Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels increased by 34% and the world’s population grew by 15%. These figures should be seen in the context of the historic increases of ‘atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases’ and the resulting ‘temperature rise’. The heartbreakingly imprudent and brutal development is reflected in 82 countries’ current Climate Debt in ClimatePositions. Many countries wisely prioritize ‘renewable energy’, however, globally renewable energy¹ (electrically generated) was only 8.6% of the total primary energy production in 2012 compared to 7.4% in 2000.
The table below ranks the 82 countries with Climate Debt by:
- Climate Debt per capita in 2013 (worst performing first).
- CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels in tons per capita in 2012.
- Renewable energy production (electrically generated) as share of the total primary energy production in 2012.
- Increase of the share of renewable energy production from 2000 to 2012.